Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf626afd84ef1ec9d7089d7ba6c0ef87e91dfb8fed933cd0af2dd1139511d18e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 3c | 2,934$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.12 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,852$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.02 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 22c | 1,101$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.82 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 15c | 1,038$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.83 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 5c | 945.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.29 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 928$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.47 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 2c | 717.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 57c | 538.13$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.36 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 20c | 530.35$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.63 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 12c | 463.78$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.49 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked Yes | 30c | 449.97$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.99 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…4b60backed Yes | 41c | 433.35$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.13 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.58 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 398$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.56 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 45c | 395.88$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.24 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 388.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 72c | 354.69$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.92 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 301.55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe81…4fb6backed No | 79c | 282.04$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.56 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 42c | 223.63$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.05 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 60c | 222.03$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.72 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 45c | 219.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.8 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 71c | 216.06$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 32c | 199.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 38c | 199.98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 22c | 199.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 13c | 196.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 65c | 166.44$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.86 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 75c | 162.37$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 36c | 160.35$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.01 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…e076backed Yes | 66c | 152.37$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.63 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 60c | 150.72$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.7 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 12c | 149.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 21c | 148.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 146$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 141.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 59c | 126$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 16c | 120.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 118.09$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.39 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 53c | 116.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 16c | 115.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…2162backed Yes | 36c | 110.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 110.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x001b…698bbacked Yes | 16c | 109.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 108.88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 105.54$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 11c | 103.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 102$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1362…2081backed Yes | 76c | 100.69$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.98 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 20c | 100.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3797…efeabacked Yes | 40c | 100.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…5f3dbacked Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 73c | 98.12$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 20c | 97.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 36c | 90.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked Yes | 35c | 89.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 41c | 88.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 86.47$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 85.59$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 59c | 84.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 21c | 83.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.95 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88af…3598backed Yes | 38c | 79.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 56c | 75.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4323…f818backed Yes | 16c | 71.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…5c3abacked Yes | 32c | 66.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7a…24f9backed Yes | 77c | 64.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 58c | 60.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 42c | 54.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 53.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…6e26backed No | 38c | 52.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 43c | 50.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 30c | 50.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb22…8186backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1786…f02cbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf855…9e8ebacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d2…05ccbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba88…a08ebacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 60c | 49.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe14…d255backed Yes | 46c | 45.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 23c | 44.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…adbebacked Yes | 46c | 43.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed Yes | 57c | 43.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 49c | 43.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked Yes | 74c | 41.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…f45ebacked No | 60c | 41.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 70c | 39.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb544…cd42backed Yes | 37c | 38.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 58c | 38.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 35c | 37.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x097d…6f83backed No | 62c | 36.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02cd…b342backed No | 73c | 34.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 79c | 33.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 32.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x461b…bc7dbacked Yes | 45c | 32.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.