MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6635eba59aaba44ecdd2c80a9c055f013f113e04d9363628461f657bd2d61ec4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $108,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $109,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 61c | 95,895$58,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58,489.78 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 39c | 71,809$27,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,125.34 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30c1…9f91backed Over | 41c | 12,195$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,195.12 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 39c | 6,133$2,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,712.71 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 4,947$2,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,815.59 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 68c | 2,539$1,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,730.32 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 26c | 1,927$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,428.85 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 41c | 1,787$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.41 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e6…4c4ebacked Under | 1c | 1,288$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…9b21backed Under | 1c | 1,179$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8840…f51abacked Under | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed Under | 59c | 432.06$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.92 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…509dbacked Over | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 25c | 243.48$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.61 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 40c | 232.27$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.09 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…04fcbacked Under | 56c | 180$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Over | 18c | 179.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.85 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 60c | 120.84$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 42c | 98.92$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.46 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 27c | 92.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.29 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Under | 69c | 78.35$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 156 | 39.1%61 W · 95 L | -11.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 40c | 75.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.35 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Over | 62c | 70.22$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 60c | 70.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 56c | 68.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb675…779fbacked Over | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 28c | 38.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 79c | 35.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 58c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe707…e0cfbacked Under | 59c | 33.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…527bbacked Over | 43c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9b…f703backed Under | 59c | 30.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Over | 43c | 26.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…7533backed Under | 56c | 26.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Over | 44c | 26.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Under | 57c | 25.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5550…4e4fbacked Under | 66c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5this page
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-5.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta BravesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.