MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacf3c48ac7f9a3a927fcd0af76b41227a46196a957b77a51d0f982c792b15aa9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Atlanta Braves, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,738
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,761
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,738 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 54c | 3,135$1,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,691.65 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 2,715$1,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,493.48 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 46c | 1,958$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,057.38 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Atlanta Braves | 44c | 1,339$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.98 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…2504backed Atlanta Braves | 45c | 802.18$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.2 | 103 | 49.5%51 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Atlanta Braves | 45c | 656.94$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.31 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Atlanta Braves | 45c | 654.74$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.11 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Washington Nationals | 12c | 572.75$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa371…eaa5backed Atlanta Braves | 45c | 448.89$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.89 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Washington Nationals | 13c | 340$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 254.95$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.22 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf3…50a8backed Atlanta Braves | 45c | 212.76$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.02 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -29%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…f527backed Atlanta Braves | 45c | 212.76$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.02 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves | 46c | 206.98$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.08 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 196.44$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Atlanta Braves | 71c | 178.53$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Washington Nationals | 10c | 169$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 109.96$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.58 | 206 | 54.4%112 W · 94 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Atlanta Braves | 45c | 108.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.79 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Atlanta Braves | 45c | 108.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.79 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd577…c012backed Atlanta Braves | 45c | 108.69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.78 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7218…ea41backed Atlanta Braves | 45c | 106.38$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.51 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed Atlanta Braves | 44c | 102.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x920b…fcfbbacked Washington Nationals | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 166 | 48.8%81 W · 85 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282b…cc76backed Atlanta Braves | 45c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…4551backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 89.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 212 | 52.4%111 W · 101 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Washington Nationals | 55c | 49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Washington Nationals | 55c | 43.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Atlanta Braves | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…98b6backed Atlanta Braves | 45c | 43.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ea…1bd8backed Atlanta Braves | 45c | 43.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa71d…9854backed Atlanta Braves | 45c | 42.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x947d…dff0backed Atlanta Braves | 45c | 42.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd6…cfdebacked Atlanta Braves | 45c | 42.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Atlanta Braves | 79c | 39.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a48…9e7bbacked Washington Nationals | 55c | 39.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 195 | 49.2%96 W · 99 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Atlanta Braves | 45c | 30.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 163 | 55.8%91 W · 72 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fe…f4febacked Atlanta Braves | 80c | 26.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Washington Nationals | 54c | 24.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Atlanta Braves | 46c | 23.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 246 | 44.7%110 W · 136 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-5.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta BravesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.