NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66ba697ef39f8b9af178b2ccb8710acee9e3ae9ad7c4486a02de703a1088a548
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Timberwolves | 54c | 5,005$2,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,302.62 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Heat | 46c | 3,193$1,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,475.21 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Heat | 52c | 2,970$1,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,541.33 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 1,937$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.35 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Timberwolves | 48c | 1,379$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.34 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x478f…f5d9backed Heat | 51c | 971.62$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.41 | 220 | 35.5%78 W · 142 L | -11.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Heat | 46c | 900$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Heat | 46c | 195.65$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 159$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Heat | 47c | 158.92$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.75 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Heat | 53c | 132$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.96 | 157 | 59.9%94 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Timberwolves | 47c | 100.36$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.48 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b69…c932backed Timberwolves | 51c | 97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.57 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Heat | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Heat | 49c | 66.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf54a…e25dbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Timberwolves | 48c | 49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 48.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaed3…205bbacked Timberwolves | 55c | 39.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Heat | 46c | 38.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Heat | 54c | 32.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 421 | 46.1%194 W · 227 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…1809backed Heat | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Timberwolves | 55c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 421 | 43.7%184 W · 237 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Heat | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 164 | 36.6%60 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f50…d342backed Heat | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)this page
- Heat vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Heat vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Heat vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 122.5Under won
- Heat vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5Under won
- Heat vs. Timberwolves: O/U 237.5Under won
- Heat vs. Timberwolves: O/U 238.5Under won
- Heat vs. Timberwolves: O/U 239.5Under won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)Timberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.