NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x974fbaf0075d3bbdbc3ccc8edc8d75c68e535d5da5c00b4601add7a84dd9f915
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 4,852$2,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,505.76 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 53c | 4,225$2,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,254.97 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Under | 49c | 4,163$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,123.27 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | -8.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 48c | 2,671$1,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,389.11 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Over | 53c | 1,523$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.4 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 53c | 1,415$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 1,072$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.32 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce5…02f1backed Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 46c | 921$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.8 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 47c | 638$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.14 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 55c | 630$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.5 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 46c | 444$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.76 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 10c | 383.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe28f…be21backed Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Under | 47c | 166.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Over | 53c | 136$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.08 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…5981backed Over | 53c | 132$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Over | 54c | 126.77$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Over | 53c | 119$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.07 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Under | 47c | 114.03$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.44 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…52fbbacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 139 | 38.8%54 W · 85 L | -14.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 156 | 57.7%90 W · 66 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 49c | 80.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…a045backed Over | 53c | 78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 46c | 74.61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5d…20c8backed Over | 54c | 74.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Over | 55c | 74.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…5332backed Under | 48c | 68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa876…3469backed Under | 47c | 64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Over | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 479 | 48.6%233 W · 246 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb781…0adcbacked Over | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Under | 47c | 54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 129 | 47.3%61 W · 68 L | +12.3wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 345 | 56.2%194 W · 151 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a6…bbd5backed Under | 47c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…8a2dbacked Under | 47c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…2cb0backed Under | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 45c | 32.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9431…6270backed Under | 47c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a59…e94cbacked Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 45c | 27.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Over | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 52c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda6e…e417backed Under | 47c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab2c…0ab7backed Under | 47c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…e166backed Over | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 187 | 57.2%107 W · 80 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5this page
- Heat vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Heat vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Heat vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 122.5Under won
- Heat vs. Timberwolves: O/U 237.5Under won
- Heat vs. Timberwolves: O/U 238.5Under won
- Heat vs. Timberwolves: O/U 239.5Under won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)Timberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.