NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47c34b8a0b67ef764a3af034f5895decea1ec44bddd9c350b7846cf63f5145df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Heat | 42c | 6,187$2,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,576.44 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves | 61c | 5,793$3,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,262.12 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Timberwolves | 41c | 4,985$2,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,947.26 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Heat | 59c | 3,983$2,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,349.24 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Timberwolves | 58c | 3,189$1,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,327.89 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Timberwolves | 40c | 2,833$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,709.79 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Heat | 59c | 2,121$1,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,251.66 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Heat | 60c | 1,789$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.66 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Heat | 52c | 1,731$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.31 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Heat | 60c | 1,445$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.32 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Timberwolves | 57c | 1,045$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.51 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Heat | 62c | 806.45$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Timberwolves | 48c | 778.85$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c7…2e93backed Heat | 52c | 769.23$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Timberwolves | 49c | 360$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.6 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…314abacked Heat | 59c | 340.68$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Heat | 56c | 270.45$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.45 | 871 | 44.7%389 W · 482 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe28f…be21backed Timberwolves | 44c | 270.45$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.45 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…77d4backed Heat | 53c | 240$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.8 | 481 | 46.2%222 W · 259 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Timberwolves | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…95d8backed Heat | 72c | 194.44$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Timberwolves | 49c | 177$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.27 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe500…4b37backed Heat | 59c | 169.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 197 | 56.3%111 W · 86 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d41…3f3fbacked Timberwolves | 75c | 104.47$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed Timberwolves | 45c | 101$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.55 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Heat | 55c | 100.14$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Heat | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Heat | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Heat | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 175 | 27.4%48 W · 127 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Timberwolves | 41c | 91.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.34 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce3e…2f24backed Heat | 52c | 88.46$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 250 | 56.8%142 W · 108 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Heat | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Heat | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb841…9969backed Timberwolves | 38c | 64.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…d693backed Heat | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Heat | 65c | 62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Heat | 57c | 41.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed Heat | 61c | 39.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5748…7b81backed Heat | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Timberwolves | 42c | 34.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7676…ada4backed Timberwolves | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Timberwolves | 39c | 27.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Timberwolves | 58c | 24.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Timberwolves | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f9f…ebc0backed Heat | 61c | 22.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…851fbacked Heat | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -10.7wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)this page
- Heat vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Heat vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Heat vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 122.5Under won
- Heat vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5Under won
- Heat vs. Timberwolves: O/U 237.5Under won
- Heat vs. Timberwolves: O/U 238.5Under won
- Heat vs. Timberwolves: O/U 239.5Under won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Timberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.