NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Timberwolves: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52d825e9c6e25d63d4f5374332f86debe58ce0335522f0cc36b329cea18b1034
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,785
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,785 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 49c | 3,380$1,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,657.5 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 51c | 2,408$1,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,179.92 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 52c | 2,300$1,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,103.81 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 51c | 2,040$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.16 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Under | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 1,485$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.45 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 708.38$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.25 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 48c | 655.6$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.69 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 546.92$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.4 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 50c | 454.98$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.49 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 50c | 444$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Over | 49c | 410.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…8d16backed Under | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 133 | 54.1%72 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe500…4b37backed Under | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 197 | 56.3%111 W · 86 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 50c | 298$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe09…7acebacked Over | 49c | 262$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.38 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefa5…3d34backed Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 46c | 185.19$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.19 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 49c | 124$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…8332backed Under | 51c | 122$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 52c | 113$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Over | 48c | 93.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 49c | 92.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…1fb3backed Under | 52c | 75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe90…5a66backed Over | 49c | 63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a9…f2d7backed Over | 49c | 59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ff…af12backed Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…b4a3backed Under | 52c | 56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 50c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Under | 53c | 45.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 762 | 50.4%384 W · 378 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe56e…0bb4backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 242 | 48.3%117 W · 125 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…8218backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 269 | 56.1%151 W · 118 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1670…d6a2backed Over | 48c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked Under | 51c | 30.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…655ebacked Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f6…9cdabacked Over | 48c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…f8afbacked Over | 48c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Under | 52c | 27.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Under | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 245 | 52.7%129 W · 116 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Under | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Under | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Under | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5d…e5bfbacked Over | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Timberwolves: O/U 238.5this page
- Heat vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Heat vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Heat vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 122.5Under won
- Heat vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5Under won
- Heat vs. Timberwolves: O/U 237.5Under won
- Heat vs. Timberwolves: O/U 239.5Under won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)Timberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.