Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66e222bc18f4c961c3f8c8b82e22ed6da0c3748dc303e0f1efa26f51a0a66e28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,578 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 1,919$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,899.67 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked No | 77c | 1,409$1,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.55 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 3c | 999.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.99 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 3c | 374.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.82 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 7c | 310.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.22 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 309.88$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed No | 25c | 302.67$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.78 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 65c | 216.5$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.21 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 206.51$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 10c | 199.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.88 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 66c | 161.63$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 146.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 31c | 131.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 21c | 129.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…86cbbacked Yes | 68c | 115.16$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.43 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 64c | 114.03$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 113.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 111.2$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 10c | 108.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 38c | 105.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f06…0e0fbacked Yes | 53c | 103.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 44c | 102.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked Yes | 38c | 100.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…c055backed Yes | 36c | 92.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 37c | 90.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…d64bbacked Yes | 45c | 88.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 88.75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 86.82$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.38 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5275…7ddabacked No | 29c | 84.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…96f4backed Yes | 37c | 81.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -10.9wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 80.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 80.23$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d37…cd5dbacked Yes | 28c | 78.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ab…c998backed Yes | 48c | 72.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33b6…597bbacked Yes | 45c | 72.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…c5eabacked Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ee…e90bbacked Yes | 34c | 58.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 21c | 55.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ca…d385backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 31c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked Yes | 43c | 45.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 67c | 43.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 28c | 43.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x299a…9e6fbacked Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 36c | 41.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…b6ecbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 36c | 37.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 68c | 36.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 67c | 34.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…a9cebacked No | 64c | 31.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 33c | 30.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa74c…a7a4backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 67c | 22.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2044…2fc5backed No | 72c | 21.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed Yes | 74c | 13.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C or higher on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.