Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc119c3642013ba1b98397388a1b4059266598bc436d1d6f0550fafb204a6a2fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53fe…5b95backed No | 1c | 3,704$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 1,562$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,534.94 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,174$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140.62 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 5c | 1,019$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.77 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff78…df44backed Yes | 14c | 871.66$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.29 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +16.2wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 47c | 830.7$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.91 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 708.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.42 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 6c | 448.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.44 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 4c | 403.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 4c | 398.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.06 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked No | 6c | 365.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 11c | 348.19$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.25 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 6c | 286.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.14 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4165…da31backed Yes | 61c | 264.12$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.09 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 7c | 263.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 259.54$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 25c | 225.93$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 10c | 215.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.46 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 34c | 196.54$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 9c | 185.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.8 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 7c | 179.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 27c | 156.76$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.32 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…66f8backed No | 65c | 152.4$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.77 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 52c | 136.42$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.79 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 22c | 132.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 60c | 124.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 112.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 36c | 106.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.48 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 62c | 94.58$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 30c | 79.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…c055backed Yes | 36c | 76.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 35c | 63.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.51 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…d64bbacked Yes | 34c | 60.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 53.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 64c | 51.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 39c | 51.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 70c | 51.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 72c | 48.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…6a43backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 42c | 47.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf7…3c63backed Yes | 76c | 47.53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed Yes | 34c | 43.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 61c | 41.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x203e…b7e1backed Yes | 41c | 34.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 58c | 30.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b52…6d8cbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 57c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 63c | 25.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf35b…8043backed No | 50c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 68c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed Yes | 47c | 21.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…f2b4backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C or higher on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.