NHL · resolved market
Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66f98d06a8261566216bab09b7bd60062819320b2bf43051c2dab22e400d6e90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 10c | 1,040$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 10c | 339.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 18c | 222$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 248 | 37.9%94 W · 154 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…c5d2backed Over | 80c | 201$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 75 | 80%60 W · 15 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 64c | 181.96$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed Under | 36c | 149.22$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb58d…fadfbacked Under | 21c | 138.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Under | 18c | 72.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…a1d3backed Over | 68c | 55.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed Under | 36c | 49.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…f13abacked Over | 80c | 36.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9c…b10bbacked Over | 80c | 24.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x563d…94cabacked Over | 80c | 24.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…061cbacked Over | 80c | 23.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf5…19afbacked Over | 80c | 23.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…df55backed Over | 80c | 22.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 70cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…d21cbacked Over | 80c | 22.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0d…1f81backed Over | 80c | 22.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2768…6bc6backed Over | 80c | 22.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…6544backed Over | 80c | 22.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x702a…d666backed Over | 80c | 22.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…d900backed Over | 80c | 22.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x812e…2fbabacked Over | 80c | 22.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e37…ac4abacked Over | 80c | 21.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe338…1a36backed Over | 80c | 21.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…e021backed Over | 80c | 21.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc5…1ea2backed Over | 80c | 20.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffbe…a9e7backed Over | 80c | 20.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 79c | 20.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1892…b7dcbacked Over | 80c | 16.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 69c | 16.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Over | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d8…f4f1backed Over | 80c | 15.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…ab5dbacked Over | 80c | 13.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.77 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 4.5this page
- Avalanche vs. WildWild won
- Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 5.5Over won
- Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 6.5Under won
- Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Wild won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.