NHL · resolved market
Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba1be410f768a6cd086c5a4c611c19cb34cd197322767574a5fff8ab832e70fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 14c | 3,193$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.45 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…600ebacked Over | 31c | 1,085$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.35 | 270 | 44.4%120 W · 150 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 80c | 625$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 103 | 67%69 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 69c | 582.75$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.75 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 70c | 479.36$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.86 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 43c | 452.19$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.75 | 248 | 37.9%94 W · 154 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 68c | 408.92$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.68 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 26c | 299.97$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.05 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 67c | 258.74$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.39 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Over | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 60c | 164.77$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.84 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Under | 45c | 118$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.22 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Under | 71c | 114.14$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ef…4a40backed Over | 56c | 110$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…40fcbacked Over | 28c | 103.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Under | 74c | 100.86$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Over | 27c | 98.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 26c | 83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under | 73c | 80.26$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +8.6wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 22c | 74.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 55c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 39c | 56.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf96…8843backed Under | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 23 | 82.6%19 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 20c | 53.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 59c | 48.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +11.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Under | 72c | 35.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 40c | 32.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 57c | 32.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 62c | 21.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d43…d0ddbacked Under | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb6…b5c1backed Under | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4188…8737backed Under | 73c | 14.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8c…970abacked Under | 73c | 13.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…f2c9backed Under | 73c | 13.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 7.5this page
- Avalanche vs. WildWild won
- Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 4.5Over won
- Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 5.5Over won
- Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Wild won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.