Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6705e22e818ed934b7e01666dcb32c6fe176902f054a9f14e06c97ae90f6d767
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 42c | 2,801$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,169.89 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 45c | 663.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.94 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd9…3c35backed No | 58c | 360$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.4 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 59c | 353.85$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.32 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 43c | 250.96$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.77 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 233$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.57 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 232.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 59c | 220$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 60c | 184$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 56c | 184$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.96 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 56c | 124.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.25 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 120.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 42c | 102.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 43c | 101.08$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 97.75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 97.15$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 83.38$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed No | 73c | 75.52$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 70.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 63c | 67.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 60c | 66.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 30c | 65.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 19c | 64.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 54c | 55.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 57c | 53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 42c | 48.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 48.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb782…aa2dbacked Yes | 41c | 48.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 52c | 47.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 39c | 46.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88e…03e8backed No | 58c | 42.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed Yes | 46c | 41.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 60c | 39.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 34c | 39.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 57c | 38.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 38c | 33.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 57c | 33.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7419…594abacked Yes | 48c | 31.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked No | 52c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e47…e1ecbacked Yes | 41c | 30.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 60c | 28.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1f…cfcdbacked No | 59c | 28.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 57c | 27.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 24.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…4d78backed No | 60c | 23.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 23.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 60c | 23.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 22.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd938…fa19backed No | 60c | 21.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 75c | 18.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 63c | 17.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 58c | 17.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C or below on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or higher on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.