La Liga · resolved market
Real Madrid CF vs. Levante UD: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67207ab8f0ba0a86494f028c6e107171a4315078d6e88d1d1c6c464f596bed46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 23c | 3,046$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.6 | 4,846 | 47%2,279 W · 2,567 L | -17.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Under | 64c | 1,563$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.5 | 154 | 46.1%71 W · 83 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee4…9f0cbacked Under | 65c | 1,541$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 36c | 1,500$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 387 | 29.5%114 W · 273 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 35c | 955.63$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.19 | 2,381 | 48.3%1,151 W · 1,230 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 65c | 643.99$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.4 | 342 | 52%178 W · 164 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 67c | 399.98$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.99 | 317 | 45.7%145 W · 172 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 35c | 392.1$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.42 | 216 | 26.9%58 W · 158 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Under | 65c | 384$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.4 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82c0…02fdbacked Over | 37c | 268.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…245dbacked Under | 66c | 222$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 631 | 58%366 W · 265 L | +43.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 7c | 195.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 1,669 | 43.8%731 W · 938 L | -22.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fc…1511backed Over | 21c | 186.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa237…d59abacked Under | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 640 | 46.9%300 W · 340 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…3377backed Under | 67c | 99.91$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…21a1backed Under | 66c | 78.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Over | 33c | 66.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf8…00d1backed Under | 68c | 59.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba73…a616backed Under | 66c | 55.48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 27c | 53.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Under | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Under | 65c | 40.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 169 | 62.1%105 W · 64 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c87…fa6ebacked Under | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Madrid CF vs. Levante UD: O/U 4.5this page
- Real Madrid CF vs. Levante UD: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Levante UD: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Levante UD: O/U 2.5Under won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Levante UD: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.