TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Prestige vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Prestigeof Prestige, Millennium Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$81,009
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$115,587

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,009 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe183…62e6backed Prestige50c6,066$3,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,035.952951.7%15 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked Prestige60c5,739$3,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,273.6292456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed Millennium Esports55c3,034$1,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,667.1960853.3%324 W · 284 L+20.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Millennium Esports50c2,999$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.5217249.4%85 W · 87 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfed…9d03backed Prestige46c2,063$946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,116.371631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-39.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8efe…6704backed Millennium Esports20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020562.4%128 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf679…2d3dbacked Millennium Esports47c1,463$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.1936440.1%146 W · 218 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-21.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Millennium Esports39c1,335$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.847,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9279…4748backed Prestige58c1,280$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.7519057.9%110 W · 80 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked Millennium Esports33c1,087$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.717448.3%84 W · 90 L-0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Millennium Esports14c840.98$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.621,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Millennium Esports31c828.53$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.121,28137.8%484 W · 797 L+5.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac39…95c7backed Millennium Esports45c812.22$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.751637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+9.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Millennium Esports41c804.55$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.1689046.1%410 W · 480 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6eac…e409backed Prestige61c763.17$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.8124551.8%127 W · 118 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Millennium Esports22c716.87$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.4151252.3%268 W · 244 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Prestige70c638.35$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.6288330.7%271 W · 612 L-63.8wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Millennium Esports36c610.44$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.165,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe544…c7afbacked Prestige66c537.24$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.668545.9%39 W · 46 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Millennium Esports42c524.46$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.740137.2%149 W · 252 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0ac…7deebacked Millennium Esports31c429.76$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.5143152.9%228 W · 203 L+26.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Prestige68c420.78$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.5175833.4%253 W · 505 L-48.9wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-31%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Millennium Esports40c418.72$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.923,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Millennium Esports38c412.37$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.644,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f17…7035backed Prestige50c410$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.145465.9%299 W · 155 L+20.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed Millennium Esports41c407$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.7245754.5%249 W · 208 L+18.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58f9…7d44backed Prestige65c406.08$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.434757.4%27 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dea…e294backed Millennium Esports56c404.99$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.8635848.3%173 W · 185 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7e8…7953backed Prestige59c400.44$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.4440449.8%201 W · 203 L+1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Prestige68c398.28$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.452,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2eb9…8d05backed Millennium Esports51c391.63$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014653.4%78 W · 68 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2f4…cddbbacked Prestige51c378.05$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.5613371.4%95 W · 38 L+11.8wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+15.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x22c7…3e23backed Prestige62c368.43$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.1414037.1%52 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Prestige52c360$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17366446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27f4…7763backed Millennium Esports62c322.97$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001040%4 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick69cpaid-41.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xec5a…cd56backed Millennium Esports48c320.72$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.8111742.7%50 W · 67 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93d7…c7a6backed Millennium Esports31c320.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0118645.2%84 W · 102 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Millennium Esports50c305.51$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.235,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff4…d731backed Millennium Esports56c305$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.1519840.9%81 W · 117 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f0b…f901backed Prestige50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15035953.2%191 W · 168 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad89…e006backed Millennium Esports33c300$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9939440.4%159 W · 235 L+30.0wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+20.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd761…56e3backed Prestige51c284.42$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.1724746.2%114 W · 133 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d08…5d9fbacked Millennium Esports52c280$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.620248%97 W · 105 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec3c…528ebacked Prestige54c278.15$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.153652.8%19 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a1d…8986backed Prestige57c276.18$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.0119451.5%100 W · 94 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Millennium Esports50c260.21$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.332,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Millennium Esports29c257.2$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.663,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaa0b…2debbacked Millennium Esports41c253.9$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10435745.4%162 W · 195 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Millennium Esports37c253.76$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.362,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09da…50bcbacked Millennium Esports41c250.72$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.942255.7%235 W · 187 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Millennium Esports25c250.34$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.212,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd92c…dd9abacked Millennium Esports50c245.69$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.755246.2%24 W · 28 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-19.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked Millennium Esports35c245.58$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.621,35252%703 W · 649 L+29.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe203…1b53backed Prestige53c225.83$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.4935344.8%158 W · 195 L-1.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Millennium Esports49c224.99$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.312,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe9b…cbe5backed Millennium Esports38c223.68$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8544244.1%195 W · 247 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9991…36b8backed Millennium Esports50c217.32$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.1321755.8%121 W · 96 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa72a…5685backed Millennium Esports42c216.74$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.8931241.3%129 W · 183 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0d5…9727backed Prestige46c215.22$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.2217438.5%67 W · 107 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2957…b26abacked Millennium Esports38c213.16$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8123038.3%88 W · 142 L-15.3wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x31fd…e144backed Millennium Esports42c212.74$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.3527544%121 W · 154 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe800…6bfbbacked Millennium Esports55c207$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.852128.6%6 W · 15 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-25.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ade…fb15backed Millennium Esports38c201$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.7319748.7%96 W · 101 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x294b…22d2backed Prestige50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10039955.4%221 W · 178 L+18.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xacf3…7513backed Millennium Esports38c199.99$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e19…d2b0backed Millennium Esports42c193.36$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.2152750.7%267 W · 260 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x589a…8dc5backed Prestige37c191.98$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.9539038.5%150 W · 240 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Millennium Esports42c185.92$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1174653.5%399 W · 347 L+9.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2363…ed78backed Millennium Esports38c184.21$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706640.9%27 W · 39 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0054…59ffbacked Prestige62c179.87$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.3512957.4%74 W · 55 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bec…7800backed Prestige57c163.65$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.6933448.2%161 W · 173 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked Prestige39c163.4$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.7325651.2%131 W · 125 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed Millennium Esports47c160.83$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.5940542%170 W · 235 L-10.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fe0…fb5bbacked Prestige43c155.12$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.1241054.6%224 W · 186 L-2.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-8.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd385…34fbbacked Millennium Esports33c153.97$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8113852.9%73 W · 65 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bf3…4f00backed Millennium Esports39c147.59$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6840857.1%233 W · 175 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc593…ea8cbacked Millennium Esports43c146$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4127156.8%154 W · 117 L+13.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe252…7f31backed Millennium Esports28c140.36$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.31136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6707…d4d8backed Prestige55c140$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6322654.9%124 W · 102 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Prestige66c138.35$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.391,84841.7%770 W · 1,078 L-69.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed Millennium Esports50c133.62$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8112118.2%22 W · 99 L-11.4wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-52.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Millennium Esports33c130.3$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4330939.2%121 W · 188 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x92f5…13e5backed Prestige46c130.28$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.2815142.4%64 W · 87 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1ee…0267backed Prestige46c129.93$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.1618054.4%98 W · 82 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e65…63a4backed Millennium Esports55c124.56$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Millennium Esports33c124.24$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4130638.9%119 W · 187 L-1.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91d5…8a03backed Prestige70c120.23$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.0712157.9%70 W · 51 L+7.2wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ae5…72d2backed Millennium Esports42c118.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8320154.7%110 W · 91 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Prestige74c106.38$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.733,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Millennium Esports44c105$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.72,36246.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf520…a909backed Millennium Esports21c102$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0850%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fc5…9fcfbacked Prestige50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508267.1%55 W · 27 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd84d…cc32backed Prestige61c99.99$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3933048.8%161 W · 169 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x225e…ac2dbacked Prestige65c99.99$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352676.9%20 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Prestige71c99.28$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.094,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Millennium Esports11c97.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.32,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked Millennium Esports39c84.62$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331,04357.3%598 W · 445 L+17.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9825…9ffcbacked Millennium Esports31c84.45$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.216032.5%52 W · 108 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x91c7…24fabacked Millennium Esports61c84.02$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked Millennium Esports35c81.05$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.372,11047.2%995 W · 1,115 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.