Fifa International · resolved market
World Cup Goals H2H: Haaland vs. Alvarez
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x675aa545662af0104add5f9018b712a5259a44c9c2b3f53ffa5d7d060db44bca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Haalandof Haaland, Alvarez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e33…1482backed Haaland | 60c | 1,213$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.24 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…2a5fbacked Haaland | 64c | 840.25$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.29 | 201 | 42.8%86 W · 115 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked Alvarez | 36c | 758.25$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.97 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad6f…ce3bbacked Alvarez | 9c | 636.49$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2567…fc9dbacked Haaland | 64c | 468.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.75 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Alvarez | 16c | 343.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf00…33a7backed Alvarez | 40c | 318.44$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.13 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +54%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1233…d58fbacked Alvarez | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e9…7a9fbacked Haaland | 64c | 265$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…feb3backed Alvarez | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fb…eceabacked Alvarez | 14c | 241.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Alvarez | 6c | 210.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 167 | 4.2%7 W · 160 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb766…1d83backed Alvarez | 16c | 209.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 145 | 34.5%50 W · 95 L | -11.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Alvarez | 10c | 177.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 293 | 7.5%22 W · 271 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…6d57backed Alvarez | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa422…2b56backed Alvarez | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb306…9873backed Alvarez | 37c | 124.91$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c49…221abacked Alvarez | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Alvarez | 11c | 118.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Alvarez | 36c | 116.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Alvarez | 18c | 100.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Alvarez | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 363 | 49.3%179 W · 184 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Alvarez | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb026…d4fdbacked Alvarez | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…1555backed Alvarez | 37c | 99.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Haaland | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 235 | 43%101 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Alvarez | 21c | 70.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 802 | 25.7%206 W · 596 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e1…e621backed Alvarez | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 72.9%51 W · 19 L | +7.3wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50c9…2dacbacked Alvarez | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9559…4913backed Haaland | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…8c5fbacked Haaland | 65c | 46.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -8.9wins | -0.20per pick | 59cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xadd3…fe84backed Alvarez | 39c | 41.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a30…b094backed Alvarez | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed01…0ceabacked Alvarez | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd35f…b9bebacked Alvarez | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x961b…2b00backed Haaland | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…3048backed Haaland | 60c | 33.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…ab61backed Alvarez | 35c | 33.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2b…c315backed Haaland | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…1453backed Alvarez | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70cb…99ebbacked Alvarez | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…90fabacked Alvarez | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Haaland | 67c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 198 | 74.7%148 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Haaland | 63c | 18.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -15.0wins | -0.13per pick | 62cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb6…c6d0backed Haaland | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab56…e635backed Haaland | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 160 | 52.5%84 W · 76 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.