NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x678d0955013bb909a832085bf39a6230b79c1392e52670506ee0f8b1a4b49da1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,104
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,104 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcaba…8d83backed Under | 55c | 23,733$13,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,679.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71fc…8f17backed Over | 45c | 23,728$10,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,677.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 3,391$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.31 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Under | 56c | 1,339$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.29 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1b…7d5ebacked Under | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.86 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 47c | 502$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.94 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Under | 53c | 380$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.6 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 51c | 373.49$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.52 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06eb…1a5fbacked Under | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 101 | 67.3%68 W · 33 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfde0…c21cbacked Under | 47c | 350$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.5 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +40%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 52c | 308.95$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.89 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e4…b6adbacked Under | 56c | 196.46$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.44 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 52c | 110$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 353 | 52.4%185 W · 168 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 56c | 110$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacdb…750fbacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Over | 51c | 79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -6.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…1b07backed Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Under | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 44c | 53.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…f4f4backed Under | 49c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb382…c498backed Under | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…ed59backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd817…ac33backed Over | 51c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f9…15eebacked Under | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 234.5this page
- Grizzlies vs. KingsGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 230.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 231.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 232.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.