NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb112c66bf9e15de0556efaa30477e05231cedea3ca2eb5787577df7505a24a87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 2,477$1,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,293.92 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Over | 52c | 1,227$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.04 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Over | 59c | 1,083$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.32 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 33c | 749.57$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.02 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…a81bbacked Under | 52c | 637.8$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.73 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddc4…0270backed Over | 72c | 416.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 277 | 45.8%127 W · 150 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 66c | 351.88$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.5 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…16d3backed Over | 54c | 344.48$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1f…0027backed Over | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b4…e861backed Over | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 48c | 285$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.3 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 130$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.81 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee9…f7acbacked Under | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +10.1wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Over | 53c | 79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 53c | 78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 48c | 76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 53c | 68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Under | 39c | 65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -6.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…4c7abacked Over | 55c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd817…ac33backed Under | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 52c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5d…b99abacked Over | 72c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 231.5this page
- Grizzlies vs. KingsGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 230.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 232.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 233.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.