NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d72fba957d07cee1a5a6d1dbdb805d317341e9385dd4fd26ab902092aa83017
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5554…32d8backed Over | 55c | 23,110$12,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,710.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2d…b288backed Under | 45c | 23,108$10,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,709.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +49%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 2,236$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,249.08 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 1,198$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.57 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Over | 56c | 935.71$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524 | 207 | 54.1%112 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 227 | 56.8%129 W · 98 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Over | 47c | 759$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.98 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…3fccbacked Under | 75c | 583.93$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.98 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 46c | 528$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b4…e861backed Over | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 25c | 421.46$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.51 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9156…9464backed Over | 56c | 399.95$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…bfb9backed Over | 50c | 308.57$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.6 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 38c | 192.62$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.68 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 46c | 190$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.6 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe45…6f77backed Under | 75c | 178.67$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 54c | 157$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.78 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 57c | 120$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Over | 26c | 89.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -6.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Over | 56c | 89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 54c | 57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…e6c3backed Over | 47c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd817…ac33backed Over | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…b151backed Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f9…15eebacked Under | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb456…1774backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…748cbacked Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 230.5this page
- Grizzlies vs. KingsGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 231.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 232.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 233.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.