NBA · resolved market
Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x290c957deee84ed99011c890a8df93024da5257cfdf2e2929b01a4d72b14f6b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grizzliesof Grizzlies, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kings | 46c | 3,878$1,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,785.62 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Grizzlies | 54c | 3,707$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,707.1 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kings | 47c | 2,261$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,067.61 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Grizzlies | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 220 | 53.6%118 W · 102 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Grizzlies | 52c | 1,675$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Kings | 47c | 1,648$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.58 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Kings | 46c | 1,354$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.64 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Grizzlies | 54c | 1,116$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.47 | 207 | 54.1%112 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Grizzlies | 54c | 927.86$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.86 | 227 | 56.8%129 W · 98 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Kings | 32c | 713.92$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.55 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Kings | 48c | 700$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Kings | 46c | 673.74$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.55 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Kings | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…6ad7backed Grizzlies | 53c | 479.69$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.49 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc0…a988backed Grizzlies | 54c | 473$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.58 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Grizzlies | 54c | 318.52$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.52 | 324 | 50%162 W · 162 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Kings | 47c | 268.24$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.95 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…6ea7backed Grizzlies | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 141 | 45.4%64 W · 77 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Grizzlies | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 175 | 54.9%96 W · 79 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a5…1633backed Grizzlies | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f80…d2ecbacked Grizzlies | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…db4bbacked Grizzlies | 54c | 128.52$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.12 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3630…7f06backed Grizzlies | 53c | 102$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Kings | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Grizzlies | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…9498backed Kings | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Kings | 48c | 99.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Kings | 48c | 95.83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Grizzlies | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Grizzlies | 55c | 91.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Grizzlies | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Grizzlies | 52c | 87.52$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.01 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5664…4843backed Kings | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee2f…7677backed Grizzlies | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Grizzlies | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…97dfbacked Grizzlies | 53c | 32.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…f12fbacked Grizzlies | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Kings | 47c | 28.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Grizzlies | 53c | 19.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 468 | 47.4%222 W · 246 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)this page
- Grizzlies vs. KingsGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 230.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 231.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 232.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 233.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.