NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6e8f686c1212b25a525e26ea4f619b38addd700bb72dc80a008aaf281d9bfe2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,848
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 5,025$2,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,545.8 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a0…43cfbacked Over | 52c | 3,800$1,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,976 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc782…70eabacked Under | 48c | 3,800$1,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,976 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb5…cdb0backed Over | 53c | 1,971$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.5 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 51c | 1,435$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.19 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 52c | 1,227$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 48c | 1,227$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 50c | 1,010$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa216…179bbacked Over | 49c | 936.35$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.81 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 48c | 535.45$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.33 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 50c | 393$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.5 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a1…2974backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 173 | 31.8%55 W · 118 L | -8.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Over | 51c | 174.24$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.11 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a3…718ebacked Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b35backed Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…db06backed Under | 50c | 130.96$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.96 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…17e7backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 50c | 79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…79c2backed Under | 51c | 59.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 52.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 40c | 51.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb382…c498backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…52fbbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 139 | 38.8%54 W · 85 L | -14.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 51c | 37.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 49c | 26.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 232.5this page
- Grizzlies vs. KingsGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 230.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 231.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 233.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.