CS2 · resolved market
IEM Cologne: Virtus.pro vs. HEROIC
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x678fb09cb4b7924370920644541d0c6845afab4e0fa15e23e4f1a2c4bf78dee8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- HEROICof Virtus.pro, HEROIC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf557…18debacked HEROIC | 56c | 16,550$9,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,363.18 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed Virtus.pro | 44c | 15,000$6,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,670 | 282 | 48.9%138 W · 144 L | +21.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…21a8backed Virtus.pro | 44c | 11,806$5,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,195.67 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed HEROIC | 56c | 9,403$5,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,123.78 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Virtus.pro | 48c | 3,195$1,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,539.74 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed HEROIC | 52c | 3,000$1,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,429.99 | 218 | 46.8%102 W · 116 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea0…9928backed HEROIC | 53c | 2,137$1,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,004.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed HEROIC | 71c | 2,125$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf747…f687backed Virtus.pro | 48c | 1,577$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.03 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Virtus.pro | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.99 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed HEROIC | 54c | 1,111$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.11 | 212 | 51.4%109 W · 103 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17b9…430dbacked Virtus.pro | 47c | 1,091$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.28 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Virtus.pro | 1c | 1,050$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbb…050cbacked HEROIC | 54c | 1,033$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.3 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Virtus.pro | 46c | 1,029$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.39 | 1,611 | 45.4%731 W · 880 L | +30.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked HEROIC | 52c | 999.99$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 121 | 45.5%55 W · 66 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Virtus.pro | 47c | 954.34$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.54 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8604…bbcabacked Virtus.pro | 46c | 762$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.52 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked HEROIC | 58c | 700.16$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.16 | 106 | 63.2%67 W · 39 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…612abacked HEROIC | 53c | 658.21$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…389fbacked Virtus.pro | 50c | 600.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…9717backed HEROIC | 51c | 576.66$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Virtus.pro | 47c | 428.06$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.19 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Virtus.pro | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked HEROIC | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked HEROIC | 53c | 374.98$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.24 | 160 | 33.8%54 W · 106 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed HEROIC | 69c | 345.57$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.87 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed HEROIC | 59c | 330$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.3 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb153…d8b5backed Virtus.pro | 47c | 329.29$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.5 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa856…3964backed Virtus.pro | 37c | 326.49$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 222 | 42.8%95 W · 127 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed Virtus.pro | 48c | 269.24$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.67 | 567 | 38.8%220 W · 347 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked HEROIC | 53c | 255$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.85 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed HEROIC | 52c | 235$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.8 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b0…4f5cbacked Virtus.pro | 47c | 161.7$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Virtus.pro | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 121 | 31.4%38 W · 83 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…ffb8backed HEROIC | 54c | 129.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x175b…93aebacked HEROIC | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Virtus.pro | 44c | 97.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed Virtus.pro | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Virtus.pro | 48c | 73.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 736 | 58.2%428 W · 308 L | -22.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed HEROIC | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de9…4ab1backed Virtus.pro | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x807c…d38bbacked Virtus.pro | 47c | 66.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7514…49bebacked Virtus.pro | 47c | 63.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 317 | 58%184 W · 133 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Virtus.pro | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 854 | 46.4%396 W · 458 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3f…676cbacked HEROIC | 69c | 58.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | +7.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Virtus.pro | 45c | 47.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c5…21aabacked Virtus.pro | 47c | 42.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…6df7backed Virtus.pro | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 217 | 23%50 W · 167 L | -35.4wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x87ea…f625backed HEROIC | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2505…a4f7backed Virtus.pro | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Virtus.pro | 46c | 39.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 609 | 53.4%325 W · 284 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3de…eea7backed Virtus.pro | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebce…f37bbacked HEROIC | 59c | 28.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed HEROIC | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e3…e76cbacked HEROIC | 56c | 22.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked HEROIC | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 354 | 54.2%192 W · 162 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.