MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6812120aca1f7d56e120dcac2f2a174b73f5a4f1fd1bdcaa21949168747d1231
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Tampa Bay Rays, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9770…0ff5backed Kansas City Royals | 58c | 11,420$6,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,582.23 | 119 | 52.9%63 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 55c | 8,951$4,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,028.01 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Kansas City Royals | 45c | 5,211$2,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,344.82 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 3,122$1,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,779.97 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals | 28c | 2,915$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.36 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 1,779$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.56 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 1,242$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.37 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 1,229$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.11 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Kansas City Royals | 58c | 1,111$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.38 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Kansas City Royals | 57c | 870$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.9 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 681$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.98 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 562$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.96 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 482$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.19 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 417$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.86 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecc…7850backed Tampa Bay Rays | 27c | 409.26$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.81 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 312.33$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.42 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Kansas City Royals | 59c | 311.6$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.85 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 282.14$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.27 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 275.37$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.47 | 201 | 38.8%78 W · 123 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 273.33$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.8 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Kansas City Royals | 28c | 265$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 114$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.26 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 114$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.26 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Kansas City Royals | 28c | 102.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 75.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 66.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90fe…b7b8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Kansas City Royals | 72c | 39.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Kansas City Royals | 59c | 38.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 36.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…faadbacked Kansas City Royals | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Kansas City Royals | 72c | 26.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 24.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-5.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-6.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City RoyalsTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 13.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 14.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 16.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.