MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21c656e80f4ee4d42665d2c1c3eb4b44243454abd9be3a0becd672fb9d5be97f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a4c…1f30backed Under | 56c | 22,557$12,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,591.16 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 14,163$7,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,029.24 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 9,104$4,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,187.69 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Over | 44c | 4,887$2,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,736.76 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 44c | 4,139$1,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,318.61 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 48c | 2,584$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,343.63 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 1,634$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.52 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 50c | 1,605$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.63 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 44c | 1,242$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.27 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 43c | 1,143$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.41 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Over | 44c | 1,136$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.36 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 54c | 1,062$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.98 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 52c | 1,048$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.05 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 1,035$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.6 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 45c | 1,024$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.2 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Under | 56c | 999.95$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.97 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 44c | 759.5$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.32 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 44c | 676.77$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.77 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 45c | 622$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.1 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 44c | 600$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…5d44backed Under | 56c | 473.01$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.24 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 44c | 400$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 63c | 398.74$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.21 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 44c | 324.04$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.19 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 44c | 316$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.96 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 56c | 266.52$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.25 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 46c | 258.73$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.92 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511a…f43fbacked Over | 52c | 213.9$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.67 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.65 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 176.08$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.32 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 44c | 165.55$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.71 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…3369backed Under | 56c | 152.48$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.39 | 245 | 47.3%116 W · 129 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1405…9882backed Under | 56c | 143.66$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.45 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 48c | 126.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.18 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Under | 57c | 122.81$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Over | 45c | 113.74$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.06 | 221 | 51.6%114 W · 107 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3136…3544backed Under | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…7143backed Under | 64c | 88$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Under | 52c | 80.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 51c | 72.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 44c | 71.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 53c | 71.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…4fd5backed Under | 56c | 71.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 187 | 42.8%80 W · 107 L | -16.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 57c | 56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 56c | 55.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 53c | 53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 62c | 52.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 35c | 46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Over | 43c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 49c | 44.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…21f5backed Under | 56c | 44.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 43.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…cf89backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 48c | 29.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 57c | 27.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Under | 51c | 25.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-5.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-6.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City RoyalsTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 13.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 14.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 16.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.