Olympics · resolved market
Spread: Canada (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68128c5a837c613845e82ff5046f1bbaa03fc86f7e42a4b1d488665c4b808b53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- USAof Canada, USA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed USA | 69c | 3,345$2,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.92 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Canada | 30c | 2,276$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.09 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed USA | 69c | 1,655$1,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.06 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a3…cc69backed Canada | 31c | 1,554$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Canada | 31c | 943.39$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.71 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…d3abbacked Canada | 34c | 860.74$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a32…9875backed Canada | 15c | 816.83$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…668dbacked Canada | 16c | 729.56$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Canada | 32c | 638$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.16 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…58c7backed Canada | 23c | 615.19$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25a9…f991backed Canada | 19c | 530.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x800b…152abacked USA | 68c | 500$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ca…04b5backed USA | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f9…8d2dbacked Canada | 33c | 293.91$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e05…1b97backed USA | 71c | 273.52$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a4…3117backed Canada | 7c | 266.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked USA | 67c | 256.72$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.72 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f18…2080backed USA | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked USA | 68c | 180$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked Canada | 34c | 176.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbe…59f6backed Canada | 8c | 167.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +136.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…2ef0backed Canada | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7497…1dc4backed Canada | 32c | 151.52$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4e…ce77backed Canada | 21c | 130$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Canada | 11c | 110.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ae…97c0backed Canada | 14c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bc…45c3backed Canada | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Canada | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…3f0abacked Canada | 31c | 96.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce3…6f75backed Canada | 19c | 92.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked USA | 68c | 90$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…1f06backed USA | 65c | 85.79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed USA | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Canada | 31c | 77.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x434b…adb4backed USA | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd827…fe79backed Canada | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e00…9e93backed Canada | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1d…4fe9backed Canada | 31c | 58.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1466…3bfbbacked USA | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8039…6b4bbacked USA | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…eeb1backed USA | 70c | 19.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf250…40a8backed USA | 70c | 15.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Canada (-1.5)this page
- Canada vs. USA: O/U 5.5Under won
- Men's Final - Canada vs. USAUSA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.