TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,712
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,970

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,712 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfbd8…4027backed No57c896$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.785,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd10…7544backed Yes52c772.44$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3993548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed Yes10c612.66$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5354234.9%189 W · 353 L-30.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3606…4f25backed Yes49c601.67$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes12c565.91$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2296620.7%200 W · 766 L+59.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes14c535.63$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.441,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes48c454.43$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.7756434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No72c409$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.965,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf045…c619backed Yes45c348.35$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15718035.6%64 W · 116 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed No57c321.23$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.7319737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed Yes44c299.76$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.415435.7%55 W · 99 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes34c283.71$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7171823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No56c282.04$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.172,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No50c276.86$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.6640265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x215b…8ec5backed Yes33c272.54$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.0515334.6%53 W · 100 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No63c261$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$974,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes35c250$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.2239427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes28c232.76$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5716543.6%72 W · 93 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcfa7…3fcebacked Yes41c218.16$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick37cpaid-58.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe2e9…02babacked Yes46c215.88$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.33534.3%12 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No55c212.32$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.4160054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked No57c193.9$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.3542820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes38c192$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.6474338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No54c183.58$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.233,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No48c182.75$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.4183459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes25c175.39$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.539744.3%43 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc51…b9e8backed No52c175$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.3810134.7%35 W · 66 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes13c172.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.021,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes45c167$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.5529732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd222…fe42backed No50c149.69$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.11728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-49.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No53c141.35$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.791,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed No51c138.42$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6822849.6%113 W · 115 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f1c…ebffbacked No50c137.94$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.4413461.2%82 W · 52 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No64c136.85$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.815,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No49c136.21$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.953,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes39c130.92$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.637,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No48c126.67$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.131,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes33c126.13$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.138,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes35c111.73$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.953,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f79…d807backed Yes46c109.35$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes40c103.5$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.441331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes45c102.71$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.762,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86bd…2c98backed Yes49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015131.1%47 W · 104 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No56c102$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.363,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes41c101$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4191444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed Yes54c100.25$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4944448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1526540.8%108 W · 157 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c33…38c9backed Yes41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4124732%79 W · 168 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x972a…aee7backed No47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535547.3%26 W · 29 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed No50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505450%27 W · 27 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c76…2b9cbacked Yes61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+22.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes33c99.97$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9971031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed No49c99.96$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.984344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes51c91$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.761,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed No55c90.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.911,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No59c86.07$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.299,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No60c85.02$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.018,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes13c84$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.954,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No64c83.99$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.342,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No45c82.76$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.222,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbea5…2cf0backed No61c82.62$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2225358.9%149 W · 104 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51f0…186cbacked Yes57c82.24$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.476336.5%23 W · 40 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes45c81.51$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.294,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb0d…9efebacked Yes51c78.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No63c77.96$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.743,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes50c76.26$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1334846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No53c75.34$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.313,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes40c75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3012540%50 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No59c73$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.852,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes36c72.6$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.073,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes38c70.22$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No53c69.99$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.131649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No64c69.89$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.474,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes38c68.86$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1749551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes44c68.78$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.216,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes43c64$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6116437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2429…02d9backed No49c62.16$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.717747.5%84 W · 93 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2797…9bc0backed No47c60$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.818142.5%77 W · 104 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No51c60$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.477851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…b3e4backed No58c59.95$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9816550.3%83 W · 82 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed No49c59.02$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3327246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes35c57.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209425.5%24 W · 70 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-24.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes42c56$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.41,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a7…d69dbacked No56c55$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3523549.4%116 W · 119 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes46c54.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2517644.3%78 W · 98 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x464c…f570backed No54c50.07$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.03944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No55c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.652,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1486952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0294…76a0backed Yes45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.515246.1%70 W · 82 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.548743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked No62c48.38$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4811835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No56c47.27$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7256543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x932b…a773backed Yes32c46.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9922853.1%121 W · 107 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes40c46.55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.622,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No55c46$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.652,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcae…1ea8backed Yes45c45.84$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6310147.5%48 W · 53 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No60c45.33$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes50c45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.519541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe72b…3c9cbacked No59c45$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.47644.7%34 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.