Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC Augsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x687afd710038874f393c1d928d42a1b89008c858cf44a65d8ca3956da468cf83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb784…61d0backed No | 69c | 22,171$15,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,872.87 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 33c | 7,097$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,349.79 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 31c | 5,842$1,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,810.91 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 31c | 5,000$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,550 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 67c | 4,891$3,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,621.2 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 31c | 4,689$1,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,476.32 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Yes | 32c | 3,125$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 33c | 2,498$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.88 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 69c | 1,535$1,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.85 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed No | 69c | 1,375$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.11 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…b79abacked Yes | 31c | 1,348$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc490…6507backed Yes | 27c | 1,200$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed2…8958backed Yes | 48c | 620.1$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 52c | 600.1$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.4 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 31c | 514.1$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.15 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Yes | 31c | 437$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.47 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed No | 69c | 434.78$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.78 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 20c | 254.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Yes | 31c | 250$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347c…525abacked Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb405…c706backed Yes | 35c | 175.91$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…8fa4backed No | 69c | 166.67$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.67 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed No | 72c | 110$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d9…2f4abacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948d…1a11backed Yes | 31c | 93.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 21c | 92.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Yes | 31c | 87.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 31c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 32c | 73.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked No | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 67c | 60.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff9…46bbbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…9f00backed No | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1c…a9a5backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a88…832dbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 79c | 38.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Yes | 33c | 36.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843c…529ebacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Yes | 34c | 31.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…0a4abacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dce…b663backed No | 72c | 28.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x646c…3210backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed No | 73c | 24.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 67c | 20.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 71c | 20.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed No | 73c | 16.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Augsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910 end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-01-31?Yes won
- Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-01-31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.