Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x689ee4c9382363113b5ca38d5eec235dbaa129e4f2e513c2f1475c7106dceb14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,611
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c09…3f91backed Yes | 34c | 286.06$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.06 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9711…5d8bbacked No | 8c | 283.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.44per pick | 61cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 250.97$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 37c | 224.36$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.55 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 29c | 210.42$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.22 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 202.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 50c | 179.26$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.97 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed Yes | 70c | 171$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.45 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 29c | 144.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 77c | 125$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.5 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 55c | 107.76$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.89 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 52c | 105.11$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.39 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 28c | 99.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x666d…340bbacked Yes | 44c | 90.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.17 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 48c | 87.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 22c | 86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 24c | 77.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 54c | 77.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 59c | 76.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 34c | 71.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 34c | 65.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.77 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 48c | 65.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced5…e28dbacked Yes | 46c | 65.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 47c | 64.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 25c | 60.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 58c | 58.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 51.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 67c | 49.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 68c | 39.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 51c | 36.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 31c | 35.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 45c | 35.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 33c | 35.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…2562backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 62c | 28.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes | 47c | 27.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 62c | 26.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 42c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 78c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…5289backed Yes | 49c | 22.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 69c | 20.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…eab4backed No | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 85 | 74.1%63 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 77cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…4425backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7b…74bfbacked No | 79c | 12.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe98b…626abacked No | 80c | 12.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.