TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Group A

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Infiniteof Team Nemesis, Infinite
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$225,987
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$240,409

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $225,987 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 253 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ebc…a33dbacked Team Nemesis57c18,646$10,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,602.3963157.1%360 W · 271 L+40.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x40e8…88a4backed Team Nemesis58c12,398$7,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,193.4917162%106 W · 65 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Infinite43c11,114$4,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,384.583,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Infinite47c9,596$4,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,130.1766851.8%346 W · 322 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Infinite64c5,179$3,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,864.3275652.6%398 W · 358 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed Infinite32c4,549$1,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,093.3484958.3%495 W · 354 L+60.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Team Nemesis68c4,000$2,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,719.9971645.9%329 W · 387 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Team Nemesis67c3,990$2,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,692.541,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked Team Nemesis53c3,500$1,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,854.9992456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedcc…41a1backed Team Nemesis49c3,250$1,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,592.521953.4%117 W · 102 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed Team Nemesis19c3,000$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.540542%170 W · 235 L-10.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3db4…d69bbacked Team Nemesis55c2,500$1,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,37575056.8%426 W · 324 L+47.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Team Nemesis36c2,425$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875.681,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea58…0308backed Infinite61c2,363$1,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930.022070%14 W · 6 L+5.6wins+0.28per pick42cpaid+68.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Infinite57c2,200$1,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935.482,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Infinite36c1,750$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1201,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Team Nemesis31c1,682$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.3342142%177 W · 244 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Infinite29c1,614$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,144.222,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa28a…01c5backed Team Nemesis52c1,570$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.594459.1%26 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0434…438fbacked Team Nemesis73c1,563$1,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,145.623161.3%19 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-3.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e8a…5f49backed Team Nemesis66c1,540$1,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,016.410150.5%51 W · 50 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9279…4748backed Infinite70c1,465$1,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.3819057.9%110 W · 80 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3f1…7535backed Infinite71c1,305$929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.9813342.1%56 W · 77 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1d5…54d5backed Team Nemesis49c1,207$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.7641050.7%208 W · 202 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Infinite32c1,116$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.117,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7e8…5c8cbacked Infinite68c1,115$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.51250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-26.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x961a…aa6abacked Infinite58c1,102$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.9527548%132 W · 143 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Team Nemesis75c1,054$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.1944957.5%258 W · 191 L-19.7wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-5.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x257e…ca61backed Team Nemesis38c1,000$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37513142%55 W · 76 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x040d…417abacked Team Nemesis68c977.99$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.035856.9%33 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffca…0b64backed Infinite54c911.99$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.7652150.3%262 W · 259 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Infinite31c865$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.8549536.4%180 W · 315 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb069…9568backed Team Nemesis65c854.11$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.761442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-36.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Team Nemesis38c844$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.7237646.3%174 W · 202 L-17.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x64f4…b38ebacked Team Nemesis49c823.99$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40014147.5%67 W · 74 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa55c…1066backed Infinite47c814.3$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.5836649.5%181 W · 185 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Nemesis22c792.99$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.343,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Team Nemesis64c782.27$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.3315251.3%78 W · 74 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed Team Nemesis69c778.4$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.041,62052.7%853 W · 767 L+57.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a2c…3c32backed Team Nemesis65c774.21$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50019061.6%117 W · 73 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Team Nemesis22c758.69$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.073,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Team Nemesis48c750.5$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.3221737.3%81 W · 136 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb71…4371backed Team Nemesis43c750$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.8285851.6%443 W · 415 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2794…5835backed Infinite30c750$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Infinite34c739.98$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.385,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed Team Nemesis66c727.32$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.0326360.8%160 W · 103 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Team Nemesis47c722.07$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.992,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Team Nemesis37c706.81$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.5278639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x051c…ca3fbacked Team Nemesis45c660.61$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.2735847.5%170 W · 188 L-13.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x65ce…b90bbacked Team Nemesis35c659.21$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.7216240.1%65 W · 97 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x10e0…c736backed Team Nemesis46c652.67$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30214362.9%90 W · 53 L+11.2wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Infinite59c638.34$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.232,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9572…efffbacked Team Nemesis35c600$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21022241.4%92 W · 130 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Infinite51c570.14$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.944,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed44…4f76backed Team Nemesis51c567.22$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.9351942.2%219 W · 300 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked Team Nemesis50c551$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.317240.1%69 W · 103 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Nemesis30c536.9$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.685,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb71e…641abacked Team Nemesis39c534.75$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.6910438.5%40 W · 64 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0da…749bbacked Infinite67c533.7$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.230223.2%70 W · 232 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fd0…cdd6backed Infinite57c532.4$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.1815244.7%68 W · 84 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed Infinite32c516.08$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.8755941%229 W · 330 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Infinite53c508.43$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.962,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed Team Nemesis60c500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30032136.8%118 W · 203 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54a0…111abacked Team Nemesis68c499.99$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.997630.3%23 W · 53 L-9.8wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-32%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Infinite32c489.38$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.671,31944.2%583 W · 736 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x401d…23c6backed Team Nemesis34c488.57$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.439339.8%37 W · 56 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2764…ec08backed Team Nemesis54c487.96$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2651637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc4bb…22a9backed Team Nemesis54c485.03$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.7927647.1%130 W · 146 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab96…989fbacked Team Nemesis66c461$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.2622645.1%102 W · 124 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedcf…3335backed Team Nemesis44c458.39$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-40.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0c7b…6e9dbacked Infinite67c458.31$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.1418444%81 W · 103 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-20.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Nemesis31c455.44$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.586,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe283…7190backed Team Nemesis65c454.82$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.596545.7%441 W · 524 L+10.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f0e…7397backed Team Nemesis65c444.91$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.197754.5%42 W · 35 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+15.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa16b…b541backed Infinite58c411.29$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.1443455.1%239 W · 195 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x568d…87d0backed Team Nemesis52c389.96$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.7828943.6%126 W · 163 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d78…b8b9backed Infinite38c382.63$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.2316550.3%83 W · 82 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Team Nemesis43c381.6$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.5968659.5%408 W · 278 L+65.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+13.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked Team Nemesis46c375.75$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.672,11047.2%995 W · 1,115 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…2877backed Infinite33c352.88$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.4364854.3%352 W · 296 L+25.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c70…9168backed Team Nemesis68c350.73$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.52347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Team Nemesis42c323.92$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.682,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Team Nemesis21c310.58$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.611540.9%47 W · 68 L-13.1wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-27.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3c2b…825ebacked Infinite33c304.24$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.2413351.1%68 W · 65 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34ab…4103backed Infinite66c303.03$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.032272.7%16 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4cf…2224backed Team Nemesis66c303.03$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20022567.1%151 W · 74 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed Team Nemesis8c298.78$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9137440.4%151 W · 223 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x040c…1b97backed Infinite67c298.77$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.77580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a70…0519backed Infinite34c296.18$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.4838835.6%138 W · 250 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-5.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Infinite27c296.06$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.2189046.1%410 W · 480 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x91d7…0dfcbacked Team Nemesis59c273$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.899742.3%41 W · 56 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2fc…b1b4backed Infinite34c270.61$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.414545.5%66 W · 79 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-19.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked Team Nemesis67c264.24$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.0438358.7%225 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Team Nemesis43c263.21$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1122,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c71…c0e5backed Infinite27c261$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.7336446.7%170 W · 194 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3416…adaabacked Team Nemesis20c255.97$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5128935.3%102 W · 187 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5031…1ffbbacked Team Nemesis66c255$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.34163.4%26 W · 15 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Team Nemesis41c253.91$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.092,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed Team Nemesis48c252.36$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.9320046%92 W · 108 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Infinite64c249.99$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901,14643.5%499 W · 647 L-17.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.