NBA · resolved market
Spread: Trail Blazers (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68d13402f88417f378fd58454d1563a678c7f4643c31dc04ce091316fcd8ba41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kingsof Trail Blazers, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Kings | 47c | 1,564$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.31 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…c0d4backed Trail Blazers | 56c | 749.77$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.87 | 134 | 56.7%76 W · 58 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcde1…dfc0backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 666$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +192.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Kings | 46c | 459.99$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.9 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Kings | 46c | 400.14$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.01 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 400.14$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.08 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…4972backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 375$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.75 | 163 | 39.3%64 W · 99 L | -10.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Kings | 47c | 320$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.6 | 446 | 48%214 W · 232 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 300.25$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.15 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…1b53backed Kings | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 274 | 35.4%97 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Kings | 50c | 266$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Trail Blazers | 55c | 250$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Kings | 46c | 199.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 196$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.84 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed Kings | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 311 | 44.4%138 W · 173 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Trail Blazers | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 175 | 27.4%48 W · 127 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kings | 50c | 82.53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Trail Blazers | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Trail Blazers | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 141 | 27.7%39 W · 102 L | -16.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Kings | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 455 | 42.4%193 W · 262 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d12…5cdcbacked Trail Blazers | 56c | 32.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdb…7a7abacked Kings | 45c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9084…d70fbacked Kings | 61c | 21.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-7.5)this page
- Kings vs. Trail BlazersTrail Blazers won
- Kings vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Kings vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Kings vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Kings vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 239.5Over won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-8.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.