TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Central Arkansas Bears vs. Queens (NC) Royals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Central Arkansas Bearsof Central Arkansas Bears, Queens (NC) Royals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,910
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,927

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,910 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd218…b5c9backed Queens (NC) Royals10c1,361$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.762,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Central Arkansas Bears24c1,150$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874.921,98326.4%523 W · 1,460 L-55.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Central Arkansas Bears30c1,149$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802.262,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc3e…776bbacked Queens (NC) Royals24c1,000$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.5116746.1%77 W · 90 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Queens (NC) Royals63c987.86$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.223,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Central Arkansas Bears41c695.03$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.8794036.9%347 W · 593 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Queens (NC) Royals67c598.39$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.292,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Queens (NC) Royals77c502.38$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.81,05855.8%590 W · 468 L+34.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x94fa…989ebacked Queens (NC) Royals72c500$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.781453.1%432 W · 382 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Central Arkansas Bears59c326.9$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.072,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Central Arkansas Bears28c299.23$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.1666831.4%210 W · 458 L-43.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-23%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Queens (NC) Royals48c297.64$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.291,49348.7%727 W · 766 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Queens (NC) Royals70c269.64$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.751,23147%578 W · 653 L-17.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Central Arkansas Bears50c258.33$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.365,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Central Arkansas Bears30c168.88$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.2299045.6%451 W · 539 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Queens (NC) Royals38c134.86$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.872,00353.7%1,076 W · 927 L+101.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Queens (NC) Royals67c128$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.321,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Queens (NC) Royals71c118.81$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3658345.5%265 W · 318 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Queens (NC) Royals70c114.86$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.46538.5%25 W · 40 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Central Arkansas Bears30c108.33$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.832,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Queens (NC) Royals69c103.18$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.3912,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x989a…afbcbacked Central Arkansas Bears37c102.55$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.870349.6%349 W · 354 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5fc…28abbacked Central Arkansas Bears35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658748.3%42 W · 45 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Central Arkansas Bears33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x793d…5a89backed Queens (NC) Royals55c91.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c9e…bba8backed Central Arkansas Bears28c90$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.4614643.2%63 W · 83 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Queens (NC) Royals70c85.09$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.564,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb834…e4c1backed Queens (NC) Royals24c84.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.328350.6%42 W · 41 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Queens (NC) Royals24c83.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010126.7%27 W · 74 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf20…3189backed Central Arkansas Bears38c82$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.71633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Central Arkansas Bears30c63.66$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.561,63347.3%773 W · 860 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Queens (NC) Royals47c57$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.971,95145.1%880 W · 1,071 L-19.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34de…6527backed Central Arkansas Bears36c52.78$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.78633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97c3…b479backed Queens (NC) Royals55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.512840.6%52 W · 76 L-11.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Central Arkansas Bears29c49.84$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.3937835.7%135 W · 243 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Central Arkansas Bears34c47.31$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.451,98564.1%1,273 W · 712 L+144.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Central Arkansas Bears26c40$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.451,42043.9%623 W · 797 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9d…3e7cbacked Central Arkansas Bears25c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304843.8%21 W · 27 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x337e…d7f3backed Queens (NC) Royals68c32.06$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8825%2 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-58.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5747…d937backed Central Arkansas Bears32c32.06$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+72.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf395…ac0abacked Central Arkansas Bears35c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.535650.8%181 W · 175 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Queens (NC) Royals70c29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.378052.2%407 W · 373 L+19.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9519…e0bcbacked Queens (NC) Royals72c27.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202171.4%15 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick72cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a8e…b505backed Queens (NC) Royals46c27.64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7848051%245 W · 235 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc01…d914backed Central Arkansas Bears47c25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.312537.6%47 W · 78 L+0.6wins0.00per pick37cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Central Arkansas Bears58c23.52$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.881,66736.4%607 W · 1,060 L-4.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x413d…0db8backed Queens (NC) Royals77c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4714.3%1 W · 6 L-3.9wins-0.56per pick70cpaid-81.3%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x7789…d6c0backed Queens (NC) Royals65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139353.8%50 W · 43 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-3.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1cb…fb77backed Queens (NC) Royals73c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.610252%53 W · 49 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Queens (NC) Royals76c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1268254.3%370 W · 312 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf504…8161backed Queens (NC) Royals66c17.15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.321136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-21.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.