Ukraine · resolved market
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69471008b19d76eec9717c8ddf921363c8c54c9a3e87c57e29caaf96f16247e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85f1…e20dbacked No | 5c | 3,516$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357d…0897backed No | 1c | 2,502$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…ddd0backed No | 2c | 1,051$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked No | 20c | 999.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2468…3280backed No | 4c | 890.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 79c | 688.42$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.69 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 70c | 688.27$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.37 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 11c | 675.6$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.55 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 3c | 558.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63da…d5febacked No | 3c | 503.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 6c | 485$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes | 69c | 478.71$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.71 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 20c | 475$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.81 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 5c | 388.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 80c | 352.64$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.27 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 6c | 328.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 34c | 278.62$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06c0…15c4backed No | 5c | 215.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 6c | 187.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x29a1…5645backed Yes | 73c | 175.19$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 123.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 80c | 111.99$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked Yes | 79c | 101.09$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +69%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed Yes | 80c | 98.83$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…8cffbacked No | 20c | 76.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d43…f5a9backed Yes | 80c | 74.52$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8837…d7a0backed Yes | 77c | 66.88$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 22c | 59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7082…3a10backed Yes | 80c | 58.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +121.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4af2…3e4ebacked Yes | 80c | 49.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed Yes | 61c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…b79abacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes | 76c | 19.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfffe…4e6cbacked Yes | 80c | 19.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 69c | 15.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by May 31?this page
- Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.