MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x695947e21b81e629b2c660c8cd7e18347fb8e0105fd5f1a08fe83929516b9eb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 47c | 29,009$13,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,632.47 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 53c | 8,926$4,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,195.22 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 4,576$2,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,149.94 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…fb2ebacked Under | 53c | 4,174$2,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,961.71 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 53c | 3,127$1,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,469.69 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 44c | 2,790$1,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,216.99 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 56c | 1,411$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.9 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 56c | 1,212$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.21 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 53c | 1,024$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.28 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e64…336dbacked Under | 53c | 995$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.65 | 449 | 45.4%204 W · 245 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 53c | 800$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 53c | 581.11$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.61 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 44c | 572.43$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.87 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.71 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 55c | 504.9$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.28 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 57c | 454$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.92 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 53c | 390$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.3 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 44c | 310.41$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.58 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 53c | 283.01$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.01 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 46c | 211$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.06 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Over | 48c | 205.11$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.45 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 53c | 180$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.6 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Under | 56c | 162.03$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.29 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 156.67$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.75 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 46c | 153.93$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.31 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 53c | 126$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.22 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Under | 59c | 67.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked Under | 54c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 55c | 43.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 52c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 57c | 37.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d98…1c46backed Under | 66c | 34.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 69cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Under | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 58c | 25.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Under | 56c | 21.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed Under | 58c | 17.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 175 | 50.3%88 W · 87 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota TwinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.