MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x695bc33628889debcfe6ffb4734fe50f1622d34c24b62b59a7530194718f890f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 36c | 6,632$2,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,266.94 | 11,242 | 51.5%5,789 W · 5,453 L | +139.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 64c | 6,030$3,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,841.8 | 8,392 | 46.1%3,869 W · 4,523 L | +32.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 46c | 4,292$1,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,982.67 | 11,805 | 52.8%6,238 W · 5,567 L | +218.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 54c | 2,434$1,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.64 | 4,504 | 44.9%2,024 W · 2,480 L | +86.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 54c | 1,322$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608 | 3,248 | 51.2%1,664 W · 1,584 L | +148.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…d6a6backed Over | 66c | 600$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.88 | 130 | 63.8%83 W · 47 L | +14.3wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 60c | 307$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.3 | 8,788 | 52.6%4,623 W · 4,165 L | +509.5wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…5862backed Under | 57c | 240$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Over | 53c | 223$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.19 | 290 | 43.1%125 W · 165 L | -12.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 54c | 221.02$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.67 | 1,028 | 50.7%521 W · 507 L | +55.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x975c…6343backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -45%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 62c | 157.66$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.91 | 1,076 | 58.4%628 W · 448 L | -21.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 43c | 100.12$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 1,227 | 28.9%354 W · 873 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Under | 70c | 56.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Over | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 308 | 57.5%177 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 67c | 17.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 1,222 | 50%611 W · 611 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.