MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49be7a631e241ae5b41e2640edea1d42ac0270fad69f91336987daa61374823c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed Over | 46c | 6,000$2,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,729.99 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed Under | 59c | 5,985$3,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,453.85 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 53c | 5,729$3,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700.12 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 48c | 3,105$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.99 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 47c | 3,034$1,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,422.74 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 2,108$1,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.89 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 44c | 1,276$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.25 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 51c | 761$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.89 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 41c | 633.61$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.84 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 35c | 614.71$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.2 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 41c | 585$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.85 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 66c | 392.95$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.41 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 51c | 361.03$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.9 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 44c | 359$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.96 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 51c | 268.53$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.58 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 53c | 230.11$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.18 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 49c | 204.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.21 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 51c | 191.85$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a09…ab7ebacked Under | 51c | 177.49$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.97 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 66c | 170.39$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.23 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 42c | 161.73$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.64 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 59c | 159.97$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.03 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 47c | 151.06$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 44c | 149.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 49c | 122.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 51c | 76.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 71c | 68.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Under | 55c | 56.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 46c | 48.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 47c | 47.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 43.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 51c | 38.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 73c | 32.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 39c | 28.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5550…4e4fbacked Under | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…8f24backed Under | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 53c | 20.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Under | 59c | 17.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Under | 74c | 14.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.