TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,636
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,634

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,636 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x224a…a3d5backed Under47c6,304$2,977 inWon+$3,327.284,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over52c3,790$1,963 inLost-$1,962.88,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over56c2,198$1,228 inLost-$1,227.5511,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under42c1,925$809 inWon+$1,115.98,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Over54c1,711$924 inLost-$924.373,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Under45c806.13$363 inWon+$443.371,13742.6%484 W · 653 L+10.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over55c785.87$432 inLost-$431.7710,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Over54c438.02$239 inLost-$238.71,01450.4%511 W · 503 L+52.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa54d…deb8backed Under56c357.23$200 inWon+$157.2329950.5%151 W · 148 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over13c300$39 inLost-$394,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Over52c154.71$81 inLost-$81.082,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc22e…eab8backed Over45c126.11$57 inLost-$56.948851.6%252 W · 236 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Under64c91.11$58 inWon+$32.9879955.9%447 W · 352 L+21.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47c9…2038backed Over29c50.69$15 inLost-$14.747446.6%221 W · 253 L+26.0wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x589f…2fe4backed Over55c50.6$28 inLost-$27.83922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.25per pick48cpaid-54.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x212b…0ba5backed Over45c44.44$20 inLost-$2053655.8%299 W · 237 L+22.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Over34c43$15 inLost-$14.623,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over60c41.67$25 inLost-$255967.8%40 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cdf…58e1backed Over45c33.33$15 inLost-$1546255.8%258 W · 204 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over42c26.77$11 inLost-$11.341,79643.8%786 W · 1,010 L-33.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73bd…b576backed Under45c26.11$12 inWon+$14.3627557.1%157 W · 118 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under58c20$12 inWon+$8.48,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Under59c19.8$12 inWon+$8.092,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.