MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe64ba49cdaaec4684f85d74ae7c1ea6119b90e6a702ce1bba42f90deeaa7a4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Rockiesof Kansas City Royals, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Kansas City Royals | 36c | 942.1$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.46 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Colorado Rockies | 65c | 598.31$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.69 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685d…22d6backed Colorado Rockies | 61c | 573.61$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.61 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Kansas City Royals | 39c | 456.28$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.79 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Colorado Rockies | 61c | 397.99$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.95 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Kansas City Royals | 39c | 282.06$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Kansas City Royals | 29c | 231.24$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.41 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Kansas City Royals | 39c | 180.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Colorado Rockies | 65c | 178.36$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.93 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Colorado Rockies | 56c | 83.65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Colorado Rockies | 70c | 75.8$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Kansas City Royals | 23c | 69.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Kansas City Royals | 40c | 66.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Colorado Rockies | 62c | 65.37$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Colorado Rockies | 78c | 63.18$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Colorado Rockies | 73c | 49.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Kansas City Royals | 39c | 47.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Colorado Rockies | 67c | 44.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Kansas City Royals | 39c | 40.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Colorado Rockies | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Colorado Rockies | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Colorado Rockies | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44e…284abacked Colorado Rockies | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed Kansas City Royals | 32c | 37.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Colorado Rockies | 76c | 37.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Kansas City Royals | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 208 | 45.2%94 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Colorado Rockies | 62c | 25.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Colorado Rockies | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Colorado Rockies | 60c | 23.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Colorado Rockies | 57c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Colorado Rockies | 68c | 16.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Colorado Rockies | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Colorado Rockies | 79c | 15.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.