Fifa International · resolved market
Paraguay to score first vs. Australia?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69a014835c34be6ca57f2e8fe2ba023bfad9944eae2f1acda5de85806fd4d584
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,845
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 54c | 672.44$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.32 | 3,077 | 47%1,447 W · 1,630 L | -11.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked No | 58c | 599.94$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.97 | 706 | 48.2%340 W · 366 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5e…4e0cbacked Yes | 42c | 435.71$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 243 | 44.4%108 W · 135 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 30c | 397.24$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.49 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Yes | 45c | 328.3$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.74 | 1,536 | 49.1%754 W · 782 L | +32.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked No | 69c | 299.98$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.77 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 54c | 243.48$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 3,213 | 47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9170…499abacked Yes | 46c | 239.13$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a08…d87bbacked No | 55c | 239.09$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.59 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…535dbacked Yes | 25c | 227.44$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 273 | 27.5%75 W · 198 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a1…2a16backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…4d09backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…b369backed Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 311 | 56.6%176 W · 135 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 69c | 190.78$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.05 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 74c | 172.38$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.46 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Yes | 29c | 165.52$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 432 | 46.8%202 W · 230 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6082…3323backed Yes | 48c | 156.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 56c | 125.61$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 55c | 125.49$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.47 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 75c | 114.86$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 226 | 34.1%77 W · 149 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 53c | 110.8$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.57 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08b3…48a9backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1199…4cd7backed Yes | 47c | 53.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…de2cbacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 137 | 50.4%69 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…47b1backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +40%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 63c | 43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 326 | 39%127 W · 199 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 217 | 49.8%108 W · 109 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked Yes | 43c | 33.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…6de4backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 272 | 39%106 W · 166 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,151 | 58.5%673 W · 478 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…8786backed No | 62c | 17.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -5.6wins | -0.31per pick | 70cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paraguay to score first vs. Australia?this page
- Australia to score first vs. Paraguay?No won
- Paraguay vs. Australia: Neither team to score first?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.