Fifa International · resolved market
Australia to score first vs. Paraguay?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x916647c27ee7951969b0a06a68f3655938f180cee6170dcd5a6b60b399888da3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,556
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,556 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224f…514abacked No | 63c | 2,500$1,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.97 | 1,536 | 49.1%754 W · 782 L | +32.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…22d0backed No | 63c | 2,356$1,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.29 | 291 | 54%157 W · 134 L | +21.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 37c | 2,175$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.14 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 37c | 1,633$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.04 | 3,077 | 47%1,447 W · 1,630 L | -11.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 37c | 530.47$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.37 | 3,213 | 47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked No | 66c | 429.45$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.07 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 63c | 352.31$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.07 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e9…9756backed Yes | 41c | 348.7$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.82 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 37c | 346$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.02 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6a…e09bbacked Yes | 31c | 322.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 36c | 320.12$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.33 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 17c | 305.55$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 226 | 34.1%77 W · 149 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bed…85b8backed Yes | 35c | 286.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a1…2a16backed Yes | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…6c6abacked Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 249.56$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.08 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 63c | 229.61$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.96 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e4…2e5bbacked Yes | 25c | 180$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 95 | 61.1%58 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…535dbacked Yes | 25c | 172.56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 273 | 27.5%75 W · 198 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 75c | 172.37$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6082…3323backed Yes | 40c | 162.5$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 57c | 160$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2874…9fd7backed Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Yes | 27c | 122.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…c023backed Yes | 38c | 112$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 275 | 43.6%120 W · 155 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae4…5c60backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd79c…18a1backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…9e8dbacked No | 68c | 52.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 501 | 46.1%231 W · 270 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06fd…ebe1backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 2,231 | 49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…8786backed Yes | 40c | 49.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -5.6wins | -0.31per pick | 70cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9935…0ac5backed Yes | 38c | 46.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x440e…d53cbacked No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 55c | 43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 335 | 38.8%130 W · 205 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Yes | 36c | 42.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,293 | 53.6%693 W · 600 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 56c | 38.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 217 | 49.8%108 W · 109 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australia to score first vs. Paraguay?this page
- Paraguay to score first vs. Australia?No won
- Paraguay vs. Australia: Neither team to score first?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.