Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a2c54040497c2c907219ec47ed4c5f1b0fe7e1af0dfdb49d717588c3ef1fa53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 51c | 1,761$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.71 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 14c | 1,571$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.86 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 72c | 868.79$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.29 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 655.06$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.46 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 17c | 507.46$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.7 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 70c | 500$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 490.85$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.16 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 14c | 469.41$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 18c | 363.1$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.3 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 336.88$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.08 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 20c | 250.2$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.16 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 70c | 250$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 67c | 249.99$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.49 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9f…d7c1backed Yes | 24c | 220$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 28c | 210.42$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.24 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 20c | 210.17$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.97 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 75c | 201.22$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.85 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 201$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.78 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 187.47$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 165.46$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.05 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 158.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 156.24$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.04 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 68c | 150$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.35 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 133$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.77 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 31c | 129.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.68 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 32c | 127.2$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.65 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed Yes | 15c | 125.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.36 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 115.29$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 112.72$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 26c | 108.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.08 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 74c | 108.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 103$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.31 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 32c | 98.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 89.48$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.91 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e86…5c70backed Yes | 45c | 84.28$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 13c | 82.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.8 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 70c | 79.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.03 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 31c | 72.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.14 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 70.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 34c | 66.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 21c | 65.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.03 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 64.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2693…28a3backed No | 80c | 62.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0691…af35backed Yes | 48c | 62.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 58.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 68c | 52.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 45c | 50.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 33c | 47.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 24c | 43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 76c | 39.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 55c | 36.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 73c | 35.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 68c | 34.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 31c | 34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63d1…7386backed No | 49c | 31.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 67c | 28.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 65c | 27.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 67c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 68c | 22.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…f207backed No | 68c | 18.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 74c | 16.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…d3f4backed No | 68c | 15.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 42°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 43°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.