Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd2a70ef871991f23dbdbe432d550418ae57e5321dfc565106c54986f7967aa5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 42c | 1,030$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.96 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 50c | 991.46$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 53c | 817.21$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.78 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 51c | 619.3$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.08 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 56c | 536.52$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 448.5$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.85 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 56c | 390.79$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.61 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 47c | 335.8$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.23 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 36c | 270.85$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.83 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 267.94$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.69 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4423…47fdbacked Yes | 33c | 261.74$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 50c | 248.12$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.27 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked Yes | 33c | 223$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.01 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…0595backed Yes | 53c | 207.7$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.27 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 62c | 207.36$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.62 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b61…0a2abacked Yes | 68c | 204.82$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 182.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 177.26$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.43 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 73c | 175.7$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 171.54$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 162.41$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.07 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 53c | 160$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.2 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 147.76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.6 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 146$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.11 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 54c | 138.64$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.77 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 136.31$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 133.62$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.17 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 48c | 133.59$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.76 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed No | 77c | 130.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 38c | 123.77$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.6 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 49c | 122.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.44 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 120.01$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 46c | 118.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 51c | 117.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…a592backed Yes | 47c | 110$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.87 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d0…1db9backed Yes | 54c | 99.11$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 71c | 95.85$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 46c | 92.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 50c | 89.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 66c | 88.11$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 43c | 85.43$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 63c | 75.4$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 49c | 75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 57c | 73.68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 33c | 70.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.61 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…3ce8backed No | 54c | 69.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed Yes | 80c | 67.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 32c | 66.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 46c | 65.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 59c | 63.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 76c | 61.11$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5d…2a43backed Yes | 75c | 53.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 46c | 52.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 56c | 52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 32c | 50.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…1a2abacked Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9f…d7c1backed Yes | 53c | 46.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 54c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 48c | 44.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc295…c520backed Yes | 72c | 41.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 34c | 40.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0865…8ed5backed Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 43c | 37.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 53c | 37.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 45c | 36.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 35c | 36.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5da3…69f8backed Yes | 52c | 34.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 54c | 34.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 41c | 32.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x895c…d026backed Yes | 45c | 28.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff83…23bebacked No | 47c | 27.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +109.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8b…2ef7backed Yes | 74c | 27.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 49c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 51c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 77c | 25.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 66c | 25.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a46…9679backed Yes | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c36…4666backed Yes | 44c | 22.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 50c | 20.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…1b0dbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…e637backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…47a2backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…e434backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +5.0wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf534…5a56backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa434…cf75backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…6254backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…3998backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 42°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 43°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.