TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs AaB Esport (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #1 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nemigaof Nemiga, AaB Esport
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$55,408
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$65,282

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,408 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xad72…4f5ebacked AaB Esport44c2,816$1,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,234.3424538.4%94 W · 151 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda1a…3407backed Nemiga63c2,619$1,638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$980.5628960.6%175 W · 114 L+14.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x36f9…4df8backed Nemiga51c2,574$1,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,261.9618356.3%103 W · 80 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9ea…b907backed Nemiga75c1,991$1,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.8837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.19per pick57cpaid-48.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked AaB Esport44c1,920$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.477,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9a5…c602backed AaB Esport29c1,234$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.6933237%123 W · 209 L-1.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79df…31d6backed AaB Esport28c1,071$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30027831.7%88 W · 190 L-1.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x928a…8044backed Nemiga68c1,030$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.620358.6%119 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked AaB Esport46c965.2$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.692,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked AaB Esport52c900$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46494645.8%433 W · 513 L+18.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8668…7f8fbacked AaB Esport64c898.49$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.9813343.6%58 W · 75 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c93…33d5backed Nemiga54c750$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.748437.6%182 W · 302 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed AaB Esport23c743.14$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.865,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked AaB Esport33c730.89$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.8219540%78 W · 117 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed AaB Esport47c706.19$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.564,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Nemiga58c673.48$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.838636%31 W · 55 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb31b…d703backed Nemiga80c598.27$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.738552.7%203 W · 182 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Nemiga56c580.63$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.344,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed AaB Esport34c569.55$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.2243544.6%194 W · 241 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a9e…2e40backed AaB Esport36c557.85$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003450%17 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf981…44b7backed Nemiga55c555$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.759761.9%60 W · 37 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+16%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1eb5…6fe9backed Nemiga47c536.79$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.510061%61 W · 39 L+10.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+27.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked AaB Esport44c527$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.413,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed AaB Esport46c504.99$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.615,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f17…7035backed Nemiga58c504.08$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.8745465.9%299 W · 155 L+20.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e35…2614backed AaB Esport31c497.12$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.235735.1%20 W · 37 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e19…d2b0backed Nemiga70c480.5$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.1552750.7%267 W · 260 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca82…fcfebacked Nemiga80c457.37$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.2514971.8%107 W · 42 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked AaB Esport42c429.65$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.252,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb525…bdc7backed Nemiga58c418.44$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.6125845.7%118 W · 140 L-18.3wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-17.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed AaB Esport28c404$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.922,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe283…7190backed AaB Esport42c388.4$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16596545.7%441 W · 524 L+10.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1982…bc7bbacked AaB Esport38c379.69$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.9731845.3%144 W · 174 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc386…386fbacked AaB Esport3c365.22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6925944.8%116 W · 143 L+12.2wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+30%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a6b…66b6backed AaB Esport46c353$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.384450%22 W · 22 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+37.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4654…7d52backed Nemiga76c316.72$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.851450%7 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed AaB Esport26c300$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781,21640.1%488 W · 728 L-65.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b71…80ecbacked Nemiga69c290.32$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.32683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick72cpaid+16.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a0e…021ebacked Nemiga65c284.14$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.572231.8%7 W · 15 L-4.0wins-0.18per pick50cpaid-32%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x43e2…9aeebacked AaB Esport47c255.81$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.275240.4%21 W · 31 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed AaB Esport36c248$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.842,36246.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5c2…4933backed Nemiga57c240.96$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.054261.9%26 W · 16 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+34.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf9e4…24c2backed Nemiga65c230.67$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.6733354.4%181 W · 152 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb963…3fa0backed Nemiga75c229.96$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.4950043%215 W · 285 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…5c4cbacked AaB Esport44c226.02$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4513350.4%67 W · 66 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x47ca…e92bbacked Nemiga55c214.49$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.6714658.2%85 W · 61 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed AaB Esport40c211.15$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3219329%56 W · 137 L-23.4wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-40.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked AaB Esport18c202.1$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.381,57335.3%556 W · 1,017 L+22.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x56d6…4404backed Nemiga64c200$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.764058.1%372 W · 268 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb829…4f5ebacked AaB Esport23c194$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.779020%18 W · 72 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Nemiga58c192.49$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.724,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed AaB Esport47c175$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.4183543.6%364 W · 471 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b4c…1715backed AaB Esport19c166.06$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4342427.1%115 W · 309 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0862…dc29backed Nemiga49c163.16$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.7148635.4%172 W · 314 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked AaB Esport19c160$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.42,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Nemiga48c158$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.6466446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Nemiga50c157.24$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.986,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb716…1873backed Nemiga78c142.49$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.873076.7%23 W · 7 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick65cpaid+23.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x98af…b216backed AaB Esport22c140$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1313324.8%33 W · 100 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe7a…a930backed AaB Esport47c138.17$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.232634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Nemiga55c135.44$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.574,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Nemiga50c134.4$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.62,06150.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L-18.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x143d…2602backed Nemiga74c130$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.812557.6%72 W · 53 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f93…bffabacked Nemiga68c112.93$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8878963.8%503 W · 286 L-2.5wins0.00per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ba6…cd3ebacked AaB Esport45c106.85$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.754131.7%13 W · 28 L-8.1wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-49.6%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x5341…92d6backed AaB Esport38c103.86$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.681145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-24.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e42…f22abacked AaB Esport25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2521741%89 W · 128 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed AaB Esport25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2514545.5%66 W · 79 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xce5f…ab17backed AaB Esport25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2533241.6%138 W · 194 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed AaB Esport20c99.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060838.2%232 W · 376 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Nemiga72c97.93$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3878043.7%341 W · 439 L-21.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe9b…cbe5backed AaB Esport41c93.31$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2644244.1%195 W · 247 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5ec…23bdbacked Nemiga80c93$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.64955.1%27 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf01f…e8fbbacked AaB Esport20c93$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.68230.5%25 W · 57 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ee1…377abacked Nemiga58c92.42$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4921354.5%116 W · 97 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed AaB Esport35c92.16$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.212,10216.8%353 W · 1,749 L-286.5wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-47.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xfcc9…e4afbacked AaB Esport48c85.46$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.787143.7%31 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ed…a4cbbacked AaB Esport48c85.42$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4126048.8%127 W · 133 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4177…a2b4backed AaB Esport31c80$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.81,24841.3%516 W · 732 L+5.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked AaB Esport31c79.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.923,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc63b…6e4ebacked AaB Esport22c78$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3436334.2%124 W · 239 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb00…fda1backed AaB Esport28c75.07$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0241147.7%196 W · 215 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed AaB Esport45c73.83$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.11,31944.2%583 W · 736 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52e5…60babacked Nemiga70c71.69$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.696965.2%45 W · 24 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa02…8b07backed Nemiga77c64.94$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9449766.8%332 W · 165 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e88…9b64backed AaB Esport22c64$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.226225.8%16 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x300d…780dbacked AaB Esport49c64$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.368735.6%31 W · 56 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed AaB Esport48c60.4$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291,04645%471 W · 575 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b60…76d5backed AaB Esport46c59.23$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1237841.8%158 W · 220 L-33.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-30.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8359…5944backed Nemiga48c58$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1669732%223 W · 474 L-46.0wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-32.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked AaB Esport47c57.68$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.085,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66a6…f22bbacked Nemiga54c56.84$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.016456.3%36 W · 28 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa11…7e23backed AaB Esport57c56.14$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Nemiga66c55.97$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.941,00355.7%559 W · 444 L+24.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed Nemiga78c55.72$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.491,62052.7%853 W · 767 L+57.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1445…614abacked Nemiga62c51$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.199865.3%64 W · 34 L+10.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf3c8…e340backed AaB Esport20c50.12$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0222324.7%55 W · 168 L-21.2wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-39.5%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xbe53…2dbabacked Nemiga71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.51,27471.5%911 W · 363 L+3.3wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad89…e006backed AaB Esport27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.539440.4%159 W · 235 L+30.0wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+20.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7a00…d958backed AaB Esport49c44.65$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0431662.7%198 W · 118 L+8.1wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.