College Football · resolved market
Ball State vs. Western Michigan
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a47f1097ff0524deeb2229f5dee6849b3a53feb335e909bb728f1dc230d1898
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Western Michiganof Ball State, Western Michigan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Western Michigan | 74c | 18,316$13,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,762.15 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Ball State | 26c | 17,500$4,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,550 | 272 | 46%125 W · 147 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…f3c4backed Ball State | 24c | 13,746$3,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,298.96 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Western Michigan | 76c | 12,853$9,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,101.75 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a3…c3a6backed Western Michigan | 75c | 11,087$8,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,771.66 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Ball State | 25c | 5,000$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Ball State | 25c | 5,000$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Ball State | 27c | 2,415$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Western Michigan | 76c | 2,224$1,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.76 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Ball State | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Ball State | 25c | 1,991$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.75 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd40…73a2backed Ball State | 27c | 1,855$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 112 | 21.4%24 W · 88 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Western Michigan | 74c | 1,771$1,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.05 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Western Michigan | 73c | 1,489$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.16 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Western Michigan | 73c | 1,004$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.15 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Western Michigan | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Western Michigan | 75c | 884$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.58 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Ball State | 24c | 800$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Western Michigan | 75c | 647.22$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.8 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Western Michigan | 76c | 555$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.2 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Ball State | 25c | 550$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Western Michigan | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed Ball State | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -39%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9534…1fe8backed Ball State | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +135.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Ball State | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Western Michigan | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Ball State | 26c | 257.34$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.48 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd2…fec8backed Western Michigan | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Ball State | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…63f2backed Ball State | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Ball State | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 176 | 34.7%61 W · 115 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…faa8backed Ball State | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Ball State | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 280 | 32.9%92 W · 188 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Ball State | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Ball State | 26c | 77.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaef5…a454backed Ball State | 24c | 66.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed89…647bbacked Ball State | 26c | 48.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e20…5e20backed Western Michigan | 76c | 26.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…8e0ebacked Western Michigan | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ball State vs. Western Michiganthis page
- Ball State vs. Western Michigan: O/U 43.5Under won
- Spread: Western Michigan (-9.5)Western Michigan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.