Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs PlayTime (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a4e9c497db0632d85926f673396ccbb1672362e803e07026a67c28db95110ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Team Falcons, PlayTime
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdff0…f573backed Team Falcons | 53c | 5,931$3,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,771.24 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3af1…d739backed PlayTime | 46c | 4,681$2,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,153.42 | 226 | 44.7%101 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6e…fa6fbacked Team Falcons | 56c | 1,261$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.74 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x642c…21a7backed PlayTime | 42c | 723.86$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.02 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked PlayTime | 51c | 674.41$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.95 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99e6…59dbbacked Team Falcons | 49c | 647.92$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.44 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Team Falcons | 51c | 600$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b5…c0aebacked PlayTime | 48c | 533.51$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.09 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…c244backed Team Falcons | 52c | 531.59$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.16 | 295 | 46.1%136 W · 159 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf6…0cbdbacked PlayTime | 49c | 410$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.9 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed PlayTime | 49c | 299.99$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.99 | 208 | 38.9%81 W · 127 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…9c0fbacked PlayTime | 47c | 249.52$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.27 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed PlayTime | 47c | 214$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.58 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…d5f4backed PlayTime | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 166 | 41.6%69 W · 97 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfed1…eedbbacked PlayTime | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked PlayTime | 23c | 193.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 338 | 54.1%183 W · 155 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x591d…f4dfbacked Team Falcons | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked PlayTime | 12c | 181.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee59…e42abacked PlayTime | 18c | 165.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 288 | 46.9%135 W · 153 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Team Falcons | 48c | 163.85$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.2 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked PlayTime | 52c | 140$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 267 | 41.9%112 W · 155 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7560…1ee1backed PlayTime | 8c | 139.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 211 | 33.6%71 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…af35backed Team Falcons | 68c | 136.79$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…3068backed PlayTime | 50c | 135.66$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Team Falcons | 49c | 134.69$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.69 | 131 | 48.1%63 W · 68 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…07fdbacked Team Falcons | 52c | 101.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 243 | 49%119 W · 124 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed PlayTime | 48c | 73.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8105…a0a5backed Team Falcons | 50c | 69.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x101f…b386backed Team Falcons | 58c | 64.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 321 | 54.8%176 W · 145 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5537…f9c8backed PlayTime | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed PlayTime | 50c | 53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed PlayTime | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 173 | 40.5%70 W · 103 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked PlayTime | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 311 | 26%81 W · 230 L | -17.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…d27cbacked Team Falcons | 61c | 38.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…df0ebacked Team Falcons | 51c | 37.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf557…f164backed PlayTime | 39c | 36.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed PlayTime | 48c | 32.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdd…d958backed Team Falcons | 50c | 30.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…b1acbacked Team Falcons | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2260…ed12backed Team Falcons | 58c | 24.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked PlayTime | 52c | 23.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked PlayTime | 50c | 22.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fe…1538backed PlayTime | 49c | 20.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Team Falcons | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf206…df39backed PlayTime | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 169 | 63.3%107 W · 62 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs PlayTime (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague PlayoffsTeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime - Game 1 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime - Game 2 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.