Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a6173978c79ec47472efbc8ea6ac667a2fac9b78e9ec5c8bb297caf3b1b1d11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,988
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,988 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafb8…7451backed Yes | 32c | 527.58$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.99 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6100…1c0bbacked Yes | 22c | 443.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 7c | 242.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 27c | 201.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 7c | 174.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 173$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 152.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 145.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 128.58$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 20c | 124.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 73c | 103.09$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 28c | 99.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 32c | 96.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 13c | 89.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 54c | 89.28$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 15c | 84.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 15c | 79.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 67c | 79.15$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 76c | 51.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes | 21c | 51.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x762b…d3b9backed Yes | 26c | 48.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd313…2888backed No | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 79c | 42.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 76c | 42.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9600backed No | 47c | 35.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 79c | 28.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6469…a047backed Yes | 48c | 24.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 79c | 24.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 52c | 20.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 15.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 66c | 15.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…7980backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…0cf2backed No | 75c | 14.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C or higher on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.