Commodities · resolved market
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a6a6e216887d9d1c6f70f64f8ffae53d477ffccc09b60ca4560864d22cee468
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb2d7…e559backed Up | 77c | 357.23$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Down | 25c | 253.76$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.94 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Down | 16c | 228.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xced4…5055backed Down | 22c | 222.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 26c | 184.66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Down | 36c | 160$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.65 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked Down | 30c | 154.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed Up | 77c | 145.13$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 56cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10ec…68a8backed Up | 77c | 120.3$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde03…e629backed Up | 78c | 117.79$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x720b…f155backed Up | 66c | 109.85$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…6eadbacked Down | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e45…1efbbacked Down | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…d993backed Up | 75c | 67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948a…50e4backed Up | 75c | 65.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1923…c38fbacked Down | 21c | 64.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88aa…ea6fbacked Down | 26c | 56.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Down | 40c | 56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 117 | 36.8%43 W · 74 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9223…fb06backed Down | 32c | 54.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…ebf4backed Down | 22c | 52.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae46…a663backed Down | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf0…9180backed Up | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0254…efdbbacked Down | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01e5…63d3backed Up | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd952…8c9bbacked Down | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Down | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +289%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd887…65e4backed Down | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…12a9backed Up | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…7adabacked Up | 76c | 47.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b7…ffacbacked Down | 27c | 41.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Up | 74c | 36.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Up | 74c | 25.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf723…d868backed Up | 78c | 17.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed Up | 66c | 15.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.