TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: PuckChamp vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
PuckChampof PuckChamp, Nemiga Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$57,177
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$71,288

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,177 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3413…8ff2backed Nemiga Gaming55c15,000$8,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,249.8847146.1%217 W · 254 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed PuckChamp45c2,948$1,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,630.6845750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked Nemiga Gaming19c2,840$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.1253558.9%315 W · 220 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked PuckChamp31c2,390$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,661.2831936.7%117 W · 202 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Nemiga Gaming40c2,250$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.9979159.4%470 W · 321 L+18.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed Nemiga Gaming26c2,226$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.0751544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc41e…e2e9backed Nemiga Gaming3c2,112$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60375.4%2 W · 35 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed PuckChamp58c1,543$896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.6550353.9%271 W · 232 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x581f…9d8ebacked PuckChamp45c1,420$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7819242.4%39 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked PuckChamp52c1,416$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.621,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Nemiga Gaming45c1,204$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.1232241.6%134 W · 188 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed PuckChamp51c1,174$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.5433951.3%174 W · 165 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked PuckChamp52c958.36$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.0127345.8%125 W · 148 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed PuckChamp60c879.73$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.6247046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed PuckChamp35c863.71$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.711,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked PuckChamp32c852.53$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.531,19759.2%709 W · 488 L+63.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x952a…bdc8backed Nemiga Gaming74c848.99$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.098469%58 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3135…f6c3backed PuckChamp47c797.17$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.1712065.8%79 W · 41 L+15.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+25%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb238…4961backed PuckChamp40c787.49$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.1212548.8%61 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82b0…7c38backed PuckChamp45c666.67$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.6716055.6%89 W · 71 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x880d…39bcbacked PuckChamp60c636.64$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.2632756.9%186 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked PuckChamp35c629.26$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.1540534.6%140 W · 265 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9679…9315backed PuckChamp60c620.92$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.0616058.8%94 W · 66 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked PuckChamp45c608.76$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.821,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba57…1e84backed Nemiga Gaming72c555.56$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40015050.7%76 W · 74 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed PuckChamp44c500$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.941,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x25c6…dcacbacked PuckChamp45c488.89$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.8910653.8%57 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x48f7…3aebbacked PuckChamp30c473.86$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.566648.6%324 W · 342 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bec…7800backed PuckChamp39c471.19$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.3613948.9%68 W · 71 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked PuckChamp45c409.62$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.2914555.9%81 W · 64 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked PuckChamp58c405$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.131,15147.8%550 W · 601 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb84…21a7backed PuckChamp60c400.33$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.332458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick61cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Nemiga Gaming63c387.26$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.672,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa0b…2debbacked Nemiga Gaming70c355.71$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24919547.7%93 W · 102 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38e8backed Nemiga Gaming7c332.66$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.193243.1%10 W · 314 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-56.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9417…8440backed PuckChamp30c306$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.29455.3%52 W · 42 L+11.1wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+41%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x070f…ed83backed Nemiga Gaming41c299.99$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12326247.7%125 W · 137 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed PuckChamp65c292.33$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.4325948.3%125 W · 134 L+0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked PuckChamp76c285.95$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.632,36747.3%1,119 W · 1,248 L+17.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31fd…e144backed PuckChamp26c284.19$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.313145%59 W · 72 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffc4…b347backed Nemiga Gaming72c281.44$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.8229466%194 W · 100 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd22a…2a00backed PuckChamp60c281.19$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.483050%15 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked PuckChamp45c255$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.21,89447.7%903 W · 991 L+6.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked PuckChamp45c248.89$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.8940242.3%170 W · 232 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ca…8f43backed PuckChamp45c247$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.8510544.8%47 W · 58 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e45…4b13backed Nemiga Gaming72c201.39$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14513975.5%105 W · 34 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f40…c8ffbacked PuckChamp45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11031052.6%163 W · 147 L+15.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked PuckChamp50c184.15$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.931,44348.7%703 W · 740 L+29.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Nemiga Gaming66c174.92$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.451,27045.1%573 W · 697 L-10.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfda…5504backed Nemiga Gaming67c172.78$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.768847.7%42 W · 46 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked PuckChamp50c169.6$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.311,69141.4%700 W · 991 L-40.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x267c…5bfdbacked PuckChamp45c164.2$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.3115551.6%80 W · 75 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc925…6d24backed Nemiga Gaming9c162.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8240933%135 W · 274 L-36.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-41.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked PuckChamp45c158.02$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.9113850%69 W · 69 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d0a…07c7backed Nemiga Gaming67c151.57$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.559063.3%57 W · 33 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed PuckChamp40c150.01$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.0362841.1%258 W · 370 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28f5…2035backed PuckChamp51c150$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.533165.3%216 W · 115 L+23.4wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+5.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked PuckChamp41c150$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.3730844.8%138 W · 170 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Nemiga Gaming57c148.71$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.6142767%286 W · 141 L+31.9wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Nemiga Gaming47c138.53$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1174549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f56…d7dbbacked Nemiga Gaming28c137.69$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398538.8%33 W · 52 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked PuckChamp41c125$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.3322240.1%89 W · 133 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xec54…c7b2backed Nemiga Gaming73c125$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9115650.6%79 W · 77 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ab1…638bbacked Nemiga Gaming67c122.72$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.084766%31 W · 16 L+0.2wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed PuckChamp45c122.51$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.3834041.2%140 W · 200 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0593…9712backed Nemiga Gaming69c111.41$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.1121769.1%150 W · 67 L+16.9wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed PuckChamp45c111$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.0516456.7%93 W · 71 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3066…693abacked Nemiga Gaming50c109.87$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5554548.4%264 W · 281 L-0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc62e…2d85backed PuckChamp28c107.14$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.144936.7%18 W · 31 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1982…bc7bbacked PuckChamp45c105.8$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.1910244.1%45 W · 57 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bac…d241backed PuckChamp26c104.48$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.329838.8%38 W · 60 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked PuckChamp27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7326445.1%119 W · 145 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Nemiga Gaming58c90$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.31,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed PuckChamp45c80$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.817443.1%75 W · 99 L-8.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked Nemiga Gaming78c76.92$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6058152.5%305 W · 276 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed Nemiga Gaming34c70.92$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1780244.9%360 W · 442 L-27.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked PuckChamp58c69$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7566545.6%303 W · 362 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9991…36b8backed PuckChamp52c68.32$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339658.3%56 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked PuckChamp46c65.2$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.4515342.5%65 W · 88 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a53…dfefbacked PuckChamp31c64.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.526149.2%30 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked Nemiga Gaming74c60.81$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4590756.1%509 W · 398 L+16.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09da…50bcbacked PuckChamp45c50.82$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.954546.7%21 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x189e…5aaebacked PuckChamp45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.57538.7%29 W · 46 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xec96…f5d7backed PuckChamp31c49.9$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4336452.5%191 W · 173 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x12bc…bf2fbacked PuckChamp57c45.01$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4817853.4%95 W · 83 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7aa7…afb4backed PuckChamp35c44.93$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.066857.4%39 W · 29 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x91ac…5ff3backed Nemiga Gaming36c41.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1521044.3%93 W · 117 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1617…d790backed PuckChamp34c41.59$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.461428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-3.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x316f…795abacked PuckChamp71c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.628336.4%103 W · 180 L+1.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc9d…de16backed Nemiga Gaming63c38.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.568965.2%58 W · 31 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ddd…6144backed Nemiga Gaming33c35.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.823360.6%20 W · 13 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+26.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x761d…f16dbacked Nemiga Gaming66c30.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.16683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick66cpaid+33.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x39b2…157cbacked PuckChamp45c30.33$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.684967.3%33 W · 16 L+5.4wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+21.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc593…ea8cbacked PuckChamp46c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.34548.9%22 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed PuckChamp78c28.67$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2771143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8df8…a552backed Nemiga Gaming79c26.58$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2118253.3%97 W · 85 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b90…08e7backed Nemiga Gaming72c25.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7138244.5%170 W · 212 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bf3…4f00backed PuckChamp45c23.89$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.148645.3%39 W · 47 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x26c2…0cdfbacked Nemiga Gaming68c23.21$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.918552.4%97 W · 88 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f4a…c8c3backed Nemiga Gaming72c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.