TailMyPicks

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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: PuckChamp vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nemiga Gamingof PuckChamp, Nemiga Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$78,621
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$94,581

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,621 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd6af…f9cdbacked PuckChamp0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc62e…2d85backed PuckChamp0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104936.7%18 W · 31 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked PuckChamp39c2,165$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.521,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked PuckChamp34c1,882$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.4354058.9%318 W · 222 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked PuckChamp12c1,790$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21031936.7%117 W · 202 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed PuckChamp19c1,740$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.632441.7%135 W · 189 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed PuckChamp20c1,540$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.1445750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed PuckChamp1c1,400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.765625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Nemiga Gaming70c1,320$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.479859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed Nemiga Gaming73c1,264$926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.748057.1%274 W · 206 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed PuckChamp2c1,250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301040%0 W · 104 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cd2…4cb9backed PuckChamp2c1,250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3080%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed PuckChamp40c1,208$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.6950353.9%271 W · 232 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa0b…2debbacked Nemiga Gaming71c1,156$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.1419547.7%93 W · 102 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked PuckChamp39c1,023$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.961,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ba3…9a44backed PuckChamp3c1,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.75812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick6cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc827…ff0fbacked PuckChamp3c1,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.75100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed PuckChamp23c901.9$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.171143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed Nemiga Gaming48c700$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.3851544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed Nemiga Gaming76c609$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.6150769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed PuckChamp4c600$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2650247.6%239 W · 263 L+31.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa781…8745backed PuckChamp4c600$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264650%23 W · 23 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Nemiga Gaming68c577.07$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.22,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x81c3…d67dbacked Nemiga Gaming66c565.52$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.87045.7%32 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x952a…bdc8backed Nemiga Gaming79c501.71$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.868469%58 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed PuckChamp24c500$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.591,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37ab…cdafbacked PuckChamp3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1550%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba57…1e84backed Nemiga Gaming72c500$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14015050.7%76 W · 74 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25c6…dcacbacked PuckChamp55c399.99$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.8510653.8%57 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked PuckChamp28c357.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10048053.1%255 W · 225 L+25.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xffc4…b347backed Nemiga Gaming75c300$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7529466%194 W · 100 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e63…9e38backed PuckChamp77c291$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.2434561.2%211 W · 134 L+17.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x48f7…3aebbacked Nemiga Gaming72c278.65$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.3266848.5%324 W · 344 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0593…9712backed Nemiga Gaming77c205.27$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.9121769.1%150 W · 67 L+16.9wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3135…f6c3backed PuckChamp45c204.89$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.212065.8%79 W · 41 L+15.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+25%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed PuckChamp45c202$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.926147.9%125 W · 136 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked PuckChamp45c201.89$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.8514655.5%81 W · 65 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x51be…12c2backed PuckChamp10c201.13$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2119251%98 W · 94 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Nemiga Gaming62c195.69$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.091,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…d03fbacked PuckChamp56c191.38$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.1717965.4%117 W · 62 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Nemiga Gaming73c174.91$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.2395342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed PuckChamp34c162.99$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0974549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f40…c8ffbacked Nemiga Gaming46c140$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.631052.6%163 W · 147 L+15.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked PuckChamp33c130.5$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4766545.6%303 W · 362 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e5…c8d1backed PuckChamp44c130.23$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.775451.9%28 W · 26 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec54…c7b2backed Nemiga Gaming73c128.33$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.9315650.6%79 W · 77 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Nemiga Gaming66c114.23$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.731,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Nemiga Gaming54c113.87$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.921,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54fa…2c2ebacked PuckChamp27c106.26$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.693828.9%11 W · 27 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-34%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1982…bc7bbacked Nemiga Gaming66c105$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.710244.1%45 W · 57 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked PuckChamp27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2726445.1%119 W · 145 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Nemiga Gaming64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5122240.1%89 W · 133 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc37d…e586backed PuckChamp27c89.07$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0538759.4%230 W · 157 L+26.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked Nemiga Gaming76c86.51$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8591356.1%512 W · 401 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed PuckChamp39c83.11$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.791553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5407…5bbdbacked PuckChamp27c82.96$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.43745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Nemiga Gaming58c80$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8130844.8%138 W · 170 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb238…4961backed PuckChamp22c73$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1312548.8%61 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf24f…d36ebacked Nemiga Gaming78c73$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.132100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+50.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d8d…f40dbacked Nemiga Gaming53c70$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.1844771.1%318 W · 129 L+27.1wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x880d…39bcbacked PuckChamp27c69.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7532756.9%186 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c62…f73cbacked Nemiga Gaming75c64.85$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.37425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-66.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ab1…638bbacked Nemiga Gaming72c55.56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.564766%31 W · 16 L+0.2wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked PuckChamp52c52$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0428145.6%128 W · 153 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9991…36b8backed Nemiga Gaming64c47.11$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.969658.3%56 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77de…e67abacked Nemiga Gaming68c44.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1714848%71 W · 77 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91f8…71e0backed PuckChamp27c42.78$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.552236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked PuckChamp45c42.4$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0833845.6%154 W · 184 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nemiga Gaming73c39.48$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.562,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82b0…7c38backed PuckChamp45c36.45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.416055.6%89 W · 71 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b6f…aab3backed PuckChamp71c35.21$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2542660.1%256 W · 170 L+19.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+1.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2fbc…f944backed PuckChamp65c30.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0120767.1%139 W · 68 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3162…d515backed PuckChamp77c27.61$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2635948.2%173 W · 186 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd11…67b1backed Nemiga Gaming75c26.83$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.834355.8%24 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick60cpaid+11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1381…2388backed PuckChamp78c25.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202080%16 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa689…8229backed Nemiga Gaming78c25.18$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Nemiga Gaming62c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4262841.1%258 W · 370 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb06d…ac2abacked Nemiga Gaming68c20.94$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.71353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba46…6ac5backed PuckChamp79c19.02$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.015275%39 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3db3…9657backed Nemiga Gaming67c18.93$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.251346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-15.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.