MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6aba9da3d743395cd5205e408645ac774f07bc85eaad401f78ac4f5687e4022e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 69c | 23,518$16,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,295.7 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 31c | 22,847$7,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,082.64 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 15c | 5,446$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.83 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 72c | 1,919$1,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.1 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Over | 32c | 1,538$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.22 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -6.9wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 79c | 414.93$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.77 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 27c | 343.07$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.34 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc69c…6797backed Under | 66c | 313.76$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 70c | 275.69$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.9 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 69c | 267.96$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.07 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 26c | 258$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.3 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc1…53babacked Over | 32c | 238$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.16 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 34c | 206.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 22c | 204$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 79c | 119.72$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 72c | 84.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Under | 68c | 80.26$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 63c | 78.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 35c | 70.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab1…638bbacked Under | 68c | 68.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0df0…1376backed Over | 32c | 61.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…b5a8backed Over | 33c | 44.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15fa…f856backed Under | 68c | 32.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Under | 63c | 32.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Under | 80c | 32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec7…4b43backed Under | 69c | 31.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Under | 79c | 28.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3443…64e9backed Under | 79c | 24.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 70 | 80%56 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9de…47ffbacked Under | 78c | 19.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Under | 75c | 16.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Under | 70c | 15.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis CardinalsChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.