MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9a0ef15917071f7bdc96e8b5ffc3d9bf65bff7db5a5ad9b69c7c7ace791d54e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 65c | 30,997$20,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,762.18 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Over | 41c | 17,777$7,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,288.56 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -6.9wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 45c | 11,616$5,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,239.66 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 67c | 10,781$7,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,557.61 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 28c | 9,420$2,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,647.88 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 36c | 7,121$2,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,591.01 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 59c | 3,126$1,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,281.47 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 59c | 2,512$1,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.8 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 67c | 1,262$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.78 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 50c | 1,184$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.44 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 44c | 1,024$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.56 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 59c | 638$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.76 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c2…dc0bbacked Under | 66c | 530.3$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.3 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 38c | 522.93$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.98 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 51c | 509.78$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.45 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 16c | 440.31$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…9bb3backed Over | 15c | 389.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 69c | 385.44$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.23 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 44c | 320$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.8 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Under | 67c | 254$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.82 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…9324backed Over | 49c | 198$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.02 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Over | 29c | 196.25$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.91 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 73c | 186$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 59c | 173.73$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.27 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Over | 45c | 156.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 45c | 156.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 41c | 146.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Over | 39c | 140.55$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.68 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 44c | 133.74$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d90…bcd6backed Under | 67c | 130$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 35c | 129$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 42c | 124.4$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 58c | 123$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.63 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 43c | 120.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.23 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 68c | 110.64$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 55c | 109.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 59c | 107.69$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Under | 73c | 97.03$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 59c | 87.83$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 66c | 79.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 21c | 74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 42c | 64.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Under | 67c | 59.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 23c | 57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f25…e9a5backed Over | 37c | 53.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018e…c536backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 43.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…b5a8backed Over | 46c | 43.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 42c | 42.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc1…53babacked Under | 61c | 41.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Under | 72c | 40.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 35c | 39.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 37c | 38.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 52c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b50…d2dbbacked Over | 42c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.37per pick | 48cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed Over | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bed…c30bbacked Under | 59c | 22.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec7…4b43backed Under | 59c | 20.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…d023backed Under | 80c | 17.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Under | 73c | 14.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4f…5ec9backed Under | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis CardinalsChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.