Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6afdf745ae1e48c59bd4055508750b4228601308dea904adc1a6151c7a026e2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe826…adb7backed Yes | 38c | 1,895$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.78 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 679.66$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.31 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 324.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 73c | 300$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 66c | 289.24$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.79 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e34…2851backed No | 34c | 275$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 242.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 63c | 235.49$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.33 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7e…3660backed Yes | 49c | 218.02$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.66 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 19c | 202.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.56 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 65c | 198.02$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.93 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 128.17$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 124.18$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.21 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 21c | 123$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 76c | 122.74$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.56 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 20c | 119$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.62 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 42c | 117.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 49c | 113.17$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.45 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 54c | 109$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 31c | 95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.2 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 19c | 94.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.17 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 86.08$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.01 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 85.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.69 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 80.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.19 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 68.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 34c | 68.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0f79…1c85backed No | 75c | 66.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 61c | 64.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 64.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 46c | 50.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 26c | 46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 42c | 39.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed No | 74c | 38.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 79c | 37.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e58…93e0backed No | 47c | 33.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed Yes | 32c | 32.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 58c | 32.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed No | 47c | 28.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 46c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 80c | 26.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…082cbacked Yes | 77c | 26.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 73c | 24.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 75c | 23.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 80c | 22.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafbe…072ebacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 19.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…1fe2backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C or higher on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.